- Mammoth 9-6-0 · 18 pts · 5th West · 3rd Central Division · L1
- Maple Leafs 8-6-2 · 18 pts · 8th East · 6th Atlantic Division · W1
Game day
Puck dropWho's playing
The line
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | UTAH -148 TOR +124 | UTAH -134 TOR +134 fair |
| Puck line | UTAH -1.5 (+164) | UTAH covers 36% |
| Total goals | 6.5 | 6.5 · over 50% |
Line: , ESPN. Odds move; check a book before acting. In hockey the moneyline carries the market's view; the puck line is almost always 1.5 goals, with the price doing the work.
5,000 simulated games
- Expected goals
- TOR 3.0, UTAH 3.5
- 8 in 10 games
- UTAH by 4 to TOR by 3
- Tied after 60 minutes
- 22%
Advantages Why Mammoth can win
- In goal: Sebastian Cossa (Mammoth confirmed starter, 0.857 save percentage in 4 starts) has been the better goalie lately than Sergei Bobrovsky (Maple Leafs confirmed starter, 0.885 save percentage in 10 starts), worth about 0.35 goals a game in our ratings.
- Shot margins: Mammoth have controlled play better (shots for and against, adjusted for opponents), worth about 0.34 goals to them in our ratings.
- Still out? Kirill Marchenko sat out Maple Leafs' last game. Check the team's news before puck drop.
- Team matchup: where Mammoth can take advantage. Their power play (1st of 32) meets the Maple Leafs discipline (24th), so look for them to cash in on the power plays a penalty-prone team hands out. And their shot volume (6th of 32) meets the Maple Leafs shot suppression (25th): a chance to pile up shots and make the goalie work all night.
- Star matchup: no key position favors Mammoth, so they need their depth to beat the other side's stars, with Nick Schmaltz (7 G, 9 A in 15 games, 18 min a night) leading the way.
- The betting market agrees: Mammoth 57% to win on the moneyline, after removing the sportsbooks' margin.
- Simulation: Mammoth win 2,860 of 5,000 simulated games.
Disadvantages Why Mammoth may not
- Home ice: Maple Leafs play at home, with the last line change; home teams win about 54% of NHL games.
- Recent form: average goal margin over the last five games, Maple Leafs +0.8, Mammoth -1.0.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations Mammoth lose by 3 goals or more.
- Weak spot: Mammoth rank 31st of 32 in team save percentage (0.866).
- Team matchup: where Maple Leafs can push back. Their finishing (7th of 32) meets the Mammoth goaltending (31st), so look for them to bury the chances they get. And their scoring (4th of 32) meets the Mammoth goal prevention (24th): a chance to turn chances into goals against a team that gives them up.
- Star matchup: Best skater against best skater, Auston Matthews (Maple Leafs: 11 G, 13 A in 16 games, 21 min a night; filling in for Kirill Marchenko, missed the last 2 games) has the edge on Nick Schmaltz (Mammoth: 7 G, 9 A in 15 games, 18 min a night); at wing, William Nylander (Maple Leafs: 10 G, 11 A in 16 games, 20 min a night) has the edge on Clayton Keller (Mammoth: 4 G, 14 A in 15 games, 18 min a night).
- Upset odds: Maple Leafs win 2,140 of 5,000 simulations (43%). A 57% pick still loses about 4 times in 10. About 22% of the simulations went past regulation.
In goal
UTAH Mammoth
- ConfirmedSebastian Cossa0.857 save %, 4 starts, -4.0 goals saved above average
TOR Maple Leafs
- ConfirmedSergei Bobrovsky0.885 save %, 10 starts, -5.6 goals saved above average
"Confirmed" and "Expected" are ESPN's. Starters are usually named at the morning skate or in warmups; until then we expect the team's usual starter, or the backup on the second night of a back-to-back.
🥭 Mango Sliced Facts
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Team news
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Headlines from ESPN and CBS Sports, each linked to the full story. Injuries, lineups, suspensions and coaching news come first. We leave out rumors, gossip about players' private lives and betting promos.
Who's out
UTAH Mammoth
- Sat outKailer Yamamotosat out last game
- Sat outDaniil Butsat out last game
TOR Maple Leafs
- Sat outKirill Marchenkosat out last game
- OutJohn Tavares Cout · ESPN team rosters, Nov 3, 2026
Regulars who sat out a team's last game count as likely out (box scores). Also checked: who played in recent games, ESPN team rosters, ESPN and CBS Sports news. Players out or doubtful are never counted as a strength.
Side by sideStandings
| UTAH | TOR | |
|---|---|---|
| 9-6-0 | Record | 8-6-2 |
| +0.13 15 | Goal differential/game | +0.44 9 |
| 3.60 8 | Goals per game | 3.75 4 |
| 3.47 24 | Goals allowed | 3.31 19 |
| 55.1% 3 | Shot share | 49.0% 18 |
| 29.9 6 | Shots per game | 28.1 13 |
| 24.3 3 | Shots allowed | 29.2 25 |
| 12.1% 13 | Shooting % | 13.4% 7 |
| 0.866 31 | Save % | 0.895 14 |
| 1.20 1 | Power-play goals/game | 0.94 6 |
| 10.3 25 | Penalty minutes/game | 10.3 24 |
| 59.6% 4 | Faceoffs won | 56.4% 18 |
| +0.04 10 | Strength of schedule | -0.03 18 |
Small numbers are ranks among the 32 NHL teams (1 = best). Records are wins, regulation losses and overtime or shootout losses. Strength of schedule is the average rating of opponents faced, in goals (2026-27 season).
Last 5 meetings
- Maple Leafs 4 @ Mammoth 5Oct 13, 2026
- Maple Leafs 1 @ Mammoth 6Jan 13, 2026
- Mammoth 3 @ Maple Leafs 5Nov 5, 2025
- Maple Leafs 4 @ Mammoth 3Mar 10, 2025 · Shootout
- Mammoth 2 @ Maple Leafs 3Nov 24, 2024
Your pick
Locks at puck drop · Challenge a friend · All picks · Leaderboard
What changed
Nothing since our first call ().
Based on market line + adjustments. How it works
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