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WPG

Jets @ Canadiens

NHL · · Centre Bell

MTL
The puck has dropped. The pick below is locked and counts toward the track record.

Game day

Puck drop

Warmups

Our pick · locked at kickoff
MTLMontreal Canadiens
60% to win
ModelWPG 40%MTL 60%
MarketWPG 40%MTL 60%

Same as the market. Not a promise: a 60% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.

The line

MarketAZMango
MoneylineWPG +140
MTL -166		WPG +150
MTL -150 fair
Puck lineMTL -1.5 (+142)MTL covers 36%
Total goals5.55.5 · over 43%

Line: , ESPN. Odds move; check a book before acting. In hockey the moneyline carries the market's view; the puck line is almost always 1.5 goals, with the price doing the work.

5,000 simulated games

Expected goals
MTL 3.0, WPG 2.5
8 in 10 games
WPG by 3 to MTL by 3
Tied after 60 minutes
23%
Live oddsBetMGM DraftKings FanDuel Unpaid links. We take no bets.

Advantages Why Canadiens can win

  1. In goal: Jacob Fowler (Canadiens confirmed starter, 0.932 save percentage in 8 starts) has been the better goalie lately than Stuart Skinner (Jets expected starter, 0.887 save percentage in 10 starts), worth about 0.49 goals a game in our ratings.
  2. Recent form: average goal margin over the last five games, Canadiens +2.0, Jets -3.4.
  3. Goal differential per game: Canadiens 10th (+0.43), Jets 30th (-1.33) of 32.
  4. Home ice: Canadiens play at home, with the last line change; home teams win about 54% of NHL games.
  5. Team matchup: where Canadiens can take advantage. Their scoring (11th of 32) meets the Jets goal prevention (28th), so look for them to turn chances into goals against a team that gives them up. And their finishing (9th of 32) meets the Jets goaltending (22nd): a chance to bury the chances they get.
  6. Star matchup: In goal, Jacob Fowler (Canadiens: 0.932 save percentage in 8 starts) has the edge on Stuart Skinner (Jets: 0.887 in 10); on defense, Lane Hutson (Canadiens: 3 G, 10 A in 14 games, 25 min a night) has the edge on Neal Pionk (Jets: 3 G, 7 A in 15 games, 24 min a night).
  7. The betting market agrees: Canadiens 60% to win on the moneyline, after removing the sportsbooks' margin.

Disadvantages Why Canadiens may not

  1. Still out? Nick Suzuki sat out Canadiens' last game. Check the team's news before puck drop.
  2. Strength of schedule: Jets 1st (+0.18), Canadiens 20th (-0.03) of 32.
  3. Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations Canadiens lose by 3 goals or more.
  4. Weak spot: Canadiens rank 32nd of 32 in power-play goals per game (0.29).
  5. Team matchup: Jets have no clear unit-against-unit edge, so their path runs through a hot goalie, special teams and a few lucky bounces.
  6. Star matchup: Best skater against best skater, Kyle Connor (Jets: 11 G, 4 A in 15 games, 21 min a night) has the edge on Cole Caufield (Canadiens: 8 G, 4 A in 14 games, 19 min a night; filling in for Nick Suzuki, missed the last 5 games).
  7. Upset odds: Jets win 2,000 of 5,000 simulations (40%). A 60% pick still loses about 4 times in 10. About 23% of the simulations went past regulation.

In goal

WPG Jets

  • ExpectedStuart Skinner0.887 save %, 10 starts, -5.0 goals saved above average

MTL Canadiens

  • ConfirmedJacob Fowler0.932 save %, 8 starts, +6.0 goals saved above average

"Confirmed" and "Expected" are ESPN's. Starters are usually named at the morning skate or in warmups; until then we expect the team's usual starter, or the backup on the second night of a back-to-back.

🥭 Mango Sliced Facts

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AI answers can be wrong; the numbers above rule. Not betting advice.

Team news

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Headlines from ESPN and CBS Sports, each linked to the full story. Injuries, lineups, suspensions and coaching news come first. We leave out rumors, gossip about players' private lives and betting promos.

Who's out

WPG Jets

  • Nobody listed out or questionable.

MTL Canadiens

  • Sat outNick Suzukisat out last game
  • OutMike Matheson Dout · ESPN team rosters, Oct 31, 2026

Regulars who sat out a team's last game count as likely out (box scores). Also checked: who played in recent games, ESPN team rosters, ESPN and CBS Sports news. Players out or doubtful are never counted as a strength.

Side by sideStandings

WPGMTL
4-8-3Record9-3-2
-1.33 30Goal differential/game+0.43 10
2.27 30Goals per game3.43 11
3.60 28Goals allowed3.00 10
47.0% 28Shot share49.9% 13
26.3 19Shots per game27.5 16
29.7 27Shots allowed27.6 17
8.6% 32Shooting %12.5% 9
0.886 22Save %0.899 7
0.47 28Power-play goals/game0.29 32
7.7 5Penalty minutes/game10.2 23
51.6% 29Faceoffs won58.0% 10
+0.18 1Strength of schedule-0.03 20

Small numbers are ranks among the 32 NHL teams (1 = best). Records are wins, regulation losses and overtime or shootout losses. Strength of schedule is the average rating of opponents faced, in goals (2026-27 season).

Last 5 meetings

  • Canadiens 2 @ Jets 1Oct 25, 2026
  • Canadiens 5 @ Jets 1Feb 4, 2026
  • Jets 2 @ Canadiens 3Dec 3, 2025 · Shootout
  • Jets 4 @ Canadiens 1Jan 28, 2025
  • Canadiens 2 @ Jets 4Dec 14, 2024

What changed

Nothing since our first call ().

Based on market line + adjustments. How it works

This matchup on any day (power ratings only)

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