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DET

Red Wings @ Lightning

NHL · · Benchmark International Arena

TB
The puck has dropped. The pick below is locked and counts toward the track record.

Game day

Puck drop

Warmups

Our pick · locked at kickoff
TBTampa Bay Lightning
71% to win
ModelDET 29%TB 71%
MarketDET 29%TB 71%

Same as the market. Not a promise: a 71% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.

The line

MarketAZMango
MoneylineDET +235
TB -290		DET +250
TB -250 fair
Puck lineTB -1.5 (-112)TB covers 49%
Total goals6.56.5 · over 49%

Line: , ESPN. Odds move; check a book before acting. In hockey the moneyline carries the market's view; the puck line is almost always 1.5 goals, with the price doing the work.

5,000 simulated games

Expected goals
TB 4.0, DET 2.5
8 in 10 games
DET by 2 to TB by 5
Tied after 60 minutes
19%
Live oddsBetMGM DraftKings FanDuel Unpaid links. We take no bets.

Advantages Why Lightning can win

  1. Back-to-back: Red Wings played last night, Lightning did not. Teams on the second night win less often, and often start their backup goalie.
  2. Home ice: Lightning play at home, with the last line change; home teams win about 54% of NHL games.
  3. Season-long ratings: betting lines have rated Lightning about 0.25 goals a game stronger over recent games.
  4. Team matchup: where Lightning can take advantage. Their finishing (10th of 32) meets the Red Wings goaltending (24th), so look for them to bury the chances they get. And their scoring (6th of 32) meets the Red Wings goal prevention (12th): a chance to turn chances into goals against a team that gives them up.
  5. Star matchup: In goal, Andrei Vasilevskiy (Lightning: 0.877 save percentage in 10 starts) has the edge on John Gibson (Red Wings: 0.860 in 10); at center, Jake Guentzel (Lightning: 8 G, 6 A in 13 games, 21 min a night) has the edge on Emmitt Finnie (Red Wings: 7 G, 4 A in 15 games, 18 min a night).
  6. Simulation: Lightning win 3,570 of 5,000 simulated games.
  7. The betting market agrees: Lightning 71% to win on the moneyline, after removing the sportsbooks' margin.

Disadvantages Why Lightning may not

  1. Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations Lightning lose by 2 goals or more.
  2. Weak spot: Lightning rank 30th of 32 in faceoffs won (51.4%).
  3. Power-play goals per game: Red Wings 10th (0.80), Lightning 21st (0.54) of 32.
  4. Weak spot: Lightning rank 28th of 32 in team save percentage (0.880).
  5. Team matchup: a strength Lightning may not get to use. Their shot volume (5th of 32) meets the Red Wings shot suppression (5th), one of the better units at stopping it, which can take away their plan to pile up shots and make the goalie work all night.
  6. Star matchup: the key positions lean Lightning on paper, but Alex DeBrincat (7 G, 9 A in 15 games, 20 min a night) is the kind of player who can swing one game.
  7. Upset odds: Red Wings win 1,430 of 5,000 simulations (29%). A 71% pick still loses about 3 times in 10. About 19% of the simulations went past regulation.

In goal

DET Red Wings

  • ExpectedJohn Gibson0.860 save %, 10 starts, -9.9 goals saved above average

TB Lightning

  • ExpectedAndrei Vasilevskiy0.877 save %, 10 starts, -6.9 goals saved above average

"Confirmed" and "Expected" are ESPN's. Starters are usually named at the morning skate or in warmups; until then we expect the team's usual starter, or the backup on the second night of a back-to-back.

🥭 Mango Sliced Facts

Ask about this matchup; answers use only this page.

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AI answers can be wrong; the numbers above rule. Not betting advice.

Team news

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Headlines from ESPN and CBS Sports, each linked to the full story. Injuries, lineups, suspensions and coaching news come first. We leave out rumors, gossip about players' private lives and betting promos.

Who's out

DET Red Wings

  • Sat outDylan Larkinsat out last game

TB Lightning

  • Nobody listed out or questionable.

Regulars who sat out a team's last game count as likely out (box scores). Also checked: who played in recent games, ESPN team rosters, ESPN and CBS Sports news. Players out or doubtful are never counted as a strength.

Side by sideStandings

DETTB
7-5-3Record8-3-2
+0.00 18Goal differential/game+0.38 11
3.07 20Goals per game3.69 6
3.07 12Goals allowed3.31 18
54.7% 5Shot share54.7% 6
29.7 7Shots per game30.1 5
24.6 5Shots allowed24.9 7
10.3% 25Shooting %12.3% 10
0.883 24Save %0.880 28
0.80 10Power-play goals/game0.54 21
8.5 13Penalty minutes/game7.8 6
56.6% 16Faceoffs won51.4% 30
-0.17 30Strength of schedule-0.05 23

Small numbers are ranks among the 32 NHL teams (1 = best). Records are wins, regulation losses and overtime or shootout losses. Strength of schedule is the average rating of opponents faced, in goals (2026-27 season).

Last 5 meetings

  • Red Wings 3 @ Lightning 4Apr 13, 2026 · OT
  • Red Wings 1 @ Lightning 4Mar 12, 2026
  • Lightning 6 @ Red Wings 3Nov 28, 2025
  • Lightning 1 @ Red Wings 2Oct 17, 2025 · OT
  • Red Wings 4 @ Lightning 3Apr 11, 2025 · OT

What changed

Nothing since our first call ().

Based on market line + adjustments. How it works

This matchup on any day (power ratings only)

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