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STL

Blues @ Rangers

NHL · · Madison Square Garden

NYR
The puck has dropped. The pick below is locked and counts toward the track record.

Game day

Puck drop

Warmups

Our pick · locked at kickoff
NYRNew York Rangers
52% to win
ModelSTL 48%NYR 52%
MarketSTL 48%NYR 52%

Same as the market. Not a promise: a 52% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.

The line

MarketAZMango
MoneylineSTL +100
NYR -120		STL +109
NYR -109 fair
Puck lineNYR -1.5 (+205)NYR covers 29%
Total goals5.55.5 · over 44%

Line: , ESPN. Odds move; check a book before acting. In hockey the moneyline carries the market's view; the puck line is almost always 1.5 goals, with the price doing the work.

5,000 simulated games

Expected goals
NYR 2.8, STL 2.7
8 in 10 games
STL by 3 to NYR by 3
Tied after 60 minutes
24%
Live oddsBetMGM DraftKings FanDuel Unpaid links. We take no bets.

Advantages Why Rangers can win

  1. Home ice: Rangers play at home, with the last line change; home teams win about 54% of NHL games.
  2. Faceoffs won: Rangers 6th (58.6%), Blues 25th (53.6%) of 32.
  3. Strength: Rangers rank 6th of 32 in faceoffs won (58.6%).
  4. Team matchup: no unit-against-unit mismatch clearly favors Rangers. The nearest thing to one: their finishing (12th of 32) meets the Blues goaltending (8th), close to even, so this is more about execution than one area to exploit.
  5. Star matchup: On defense, Adam Fox (Rangers: 1 G, 16 A in 15 games, 22 min a night) has the edge on Philip Broberg (Blues: 3 G, 7 A in 14 games, 24 min a night); best skater against best skater, Alexis Lafrenière (Rangers: 9 G, 7 A in 15 games, 19 min a night) has the edge on Dylan Holloway (Blues: 3 G, 9 A in 14 games, 18 min a night).
  6. The betting market agrees: Rangers 52% to win on the moneyline, after removing the sportsbooks' margin.
  7. Simulation: Rangers win 2,610 of 5,000 simulated games.

Disadvantages Why Rangers may not

  1. In goal: Joel Hofer (Blues confirmed starter, 0.917 save percentage in 10 starts) has been the better goalie lately than Dylan Garand (Rangers confirmed starter, 0.897 save percentage in 9 starts), worth about 0.16 goals a game in our ratings.
  2. Recent form: average goal margin over the last five games, Blues +0.4, Rangers -1.4.
  3. Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations Rangers lose by 3 goals or more.
  4. Weak spot: Rangers rank 29th of 32 in shots on goal per game (24.73).
  5. Team matchup: a strength Rangers may not get to use. Their finishing (12th of 32) meets the Blues goaltending (8th), one of the better units at stopping it, which can take away their plan to bury the chances they get.
  6. Star matchup: In goal, Joel Hofer (Blues: 0.917 save percentage in 10 starts) has the edge on Dylan Garand (Rangers: 0.897 in 9).
  7. Upset odds: Blues win 2,390 of 5,000 simulations (48%). A 52% pick still loses about 5 times in 10. About 24% of the simulations went past regulation.

In goal

STL Blues

  • ConfirmedJoel Hofer0.917 save %, 10 starts, +3.4 goals saved above average

NYR Rangers

  • ConfirmedDylan Garand0.897 save %, 9 starts, -2.1 goals saved above average

"Confirmed" and "Expected" are ESPN's. Starters are usually named at the morning skate or in warmups; until then we expect the team's usual starter, or the backup on the second night of a back-to-back.

🥭 Mango Sliced Facts

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Team news

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Headlines from ESPN and CBS Sports, each linked to the full story. Injuries, lineups, suspensions and coaching news come first. We leave out rumors, gossip about players' private lives and betting promos.

Who's out

STL Blues

  • Nobody listed out or questionable.

NYR Rangers

  • OutIgor Shesterkin Ginjured reserve · ESPN team rosters, Oct 11, 2026

Regulars who sat out a team's last game count as likely out (box scores). Also checked: who played in recent games, ESPN team rosters, ESPN and CBS Sports news. Players out or doubtful are never counted as a strength.

Side by sideStandings

STLNYR
7-6-1Record7-7-1
+0.14 14Goal differential/game-0.07 20
3.14 17Goals per game3.00 21
3.00 10Goals allowed3.07 12
48.5% 24Shot share48.6% 21
26.4 18Shots per game24.7 29
28.1 21Shots allowed26.2 11
11.9% 16Shooting %12.1% 12
0.898 8Save %0.898 8
0.64 15Power-play goals/game0.53 22
6.6 3Penalty minutes/game9.7 18
53.6% 25Faceoffs won58.6% 6
+0.09 8Strength of schedule+0.00 17

Small numbers are ranks among the 32 NHL teams (1 = best). Records are wins, regulation losses and overtime or shootout losses. Strength of schedule is the average rating of opponents faced, in goals (2026-27 season).

Last 5 meetings

  • Rangers 2 @ Blues 1Dec 18, 2025 · OT
  • Blues 2 @ Rangers 3Nov 24, 2025
  • Rangers 2 @ Blues 3Dec 15, 2024
  • Blues 5 @ Rangers 2Nov 25, 2024
  • Blues 0 @ Rangers 4Mar 9, 2024

What changed

Nothing since our first call ().

Based on market line + adjustments. How it works

This matchup on any day (power ratings only)

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