Game day
Puck dropWho's playing
The line
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | MIN -185 PHI +154 | MIN -165 PHI +165 fair |
| Puck line | MIN -1.5 (+140) | MIN covers 38% |
| Total goals | 5.5 | 5.5 · over 43% |
Line: , ESPN. Odds move; check a book before acting. In hockey the moneyline carries the market's view; the puck line is almost always 1.5 goals, with the price doing the work.
5,000 simulated games
- Expected goals
- PHI 2.4, MIN 3.1
- 8 in 10 games
- MIN by 4 to PHI by 3
- Tied after 60 minutes
- 24%
Advantages Why Wild can win
- Goal differential per game: Wild 5th (+1.00), Flyers 29th (-1.19) of 32.
- Shot share (their shots of all shots on goal): Wild 4th (54.8%), Flyers 30th (43.8%) of 32.
- Recent form: average goal margin over the last five games, Wild +2.2, Flyers +0.0.
- Team matchup: where Wild can take advantage. Their shot volume (3rd of 32) meets the Flyers shot suppression (28th), so look for them to pile up shots and make the goalie work all night. And their power play (6th of 32) meets the Flyers discipline (17th): a chance to cash in on the power plays a penalty-prone team hands out.
- Star matchup: In goal, Jesper Wallstedt (Wild: 0.920 save percentage in 14 starts) has the edge on Dan Vladar (Flyers: 0.885 in 8); best skater against best skater, Kirill Kaprizov (Wild: 15 G, 10 A in 16 games, 22 min a night) has the edge on Trevor Zegras (Flyers: 4 G, 9 A in 16 games, 19 min a night).
- The betting market agrees: Wild 62% to win on the moneyline, after removing the sportsbooks' margin.
- Simulation: Wild win 3,110 of 5,000 simulated games.
Disadvantages Why Wild may not
- Home ice: Flyers play at home, with the last line change; home teams win about 54% of NHL games.
- Strength of schedule: Flyers 2nd (+0.18), Wild 19th (-0.03) of 32.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations Wild lose by 3 goals or more.
- History: Flyers won 4 of the last 5 meetings (rosters change, so this says little).
- Team matchup: Flyers have no clear unit-against-unit edge, so their path runs through a hot goalie, special teams and a few lucky bounces.
- Star matchup: the key positions lean Wild on paper, but Trevor Zegras (4 G, 9 A in 16 games, 19 min a night) is the kind of player who can swing one game.
- Upset odds: Flyers win 1,890 of 5,000 simulations (38%). A 62% pick still loses about 4 times in 10. About 24% of the simulations went past regulation.
In goal
MIN Wild
- ConfirmedJesper Wallstedt0.920 save %, 14 starts, +5.3 goals saved above average
PHI Flyers
- ConfirmedDan Vladar0.885 save %, 8 starts, -4.4 goals saved above average
"Confirmed" and "Expected" are ESPN's. Starters are usually named at the morning skate or in warmups; until then we expect the team's usual starter, or the backup on the second night of a back-to-back.
🥭 Mango Sliced Facts
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Team news
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Headlines from ESPN and CBS Sports, each linked to the full story. Injuries, lineups, suspensions and coaching news come first. We leave out rumors, gossip about players' private lives and betting promos.
Who's out
MIN Wild
- Nobody listed out or questionable.
PHI Flyers
- Nobody listed out or questionable.
Regulars who sat out a team's last game count as likely out (box scores). Also checked: who played in recent games, ESPN team rosters, ESPN and CBS Sports news. Players out or doubtful are never counted as a strength.
Side by sideStandings
| MIN | PHI | |
|---|---|---|
| 10-3-3 | Record | 4-8-4 |
| +1.00 5 | Goal differential/game | -1.19 29 |
| 3.25 15 | Goals per game | 2.19 32 |
| 2.25 2 | Goals allowed | 3.38 21 |
| 54.8% 4 | Shot share | 43.8% 30 |
| 30.5 3 | Shots per game | 23.2 30 |
| 25.2 8 | Shots allowed | 29.8 28 |
| 10.7% 22 | Shooting % | 9.4% 30 |
| 0.911 3 | Save % | 0.893 15 |
| 0.94 6 | Power-play goals/game | 0.50 23 |
| 8.4 11 | Penalty minutes/game | 9.6 17 |
| 55.9% 20 | Faceoffs won | 55.0% 21 |
| -0.03 19 | Strength of schedule | +0.18 2 |
Small numbers are ranks among the 32 NHL teams (1 = best). Records are wins, regulation losses and overtime or shootout losses. Strength of schedule is the average rating of opponents faced, in goals (2026-27 season).
Last 5 meetings
- Flyers 3 @ Wild 2Mar 12, 2026 · Shootout
- Wild 1 @ Flyers 2Oct 18, 2025 · OT
- Flyers 1 @ Wild 4Dec 14, 2024
- Wild 5 @ Flyers 7Oct 26, 2024
- Flyers 4 @ Wild 3Jan 12, 2024 · OT
Your pick
Locks at puck drop · Challenge a friend · All picks · Leaderboard
What changed
Nothing since our first call ().
Based on market line + adjustments. How it works
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