- Golden Knights 9-5-2 · 20 pts · 3rd West · 2nd Pacific Division · L2
- Penguins 5-7-2 · 12 pts · 14th East · 6th Metropolitan Division · L2
Game day
Puck dropWho's playing
The line
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | VGK -102 PIT -118 | VGK +107 PIT -107 fair |
| Puck line | PIT -1.5 (+205) | PIT covers 30% |
| Total goals | 6.5 | 6.5 · over 49% |
Line: , ESPN. Odds move; check a book before acting. In hockey the moneyline carries the market's view; the puck line is almost always 1.5 goals, with the price doing the work.
5,000 simulated games
- Expected goals
- PIT 3.3, VGK 3.2
- 8 in 10 games
- VGK by 3 to PIT by 3
- Tied after 60 minutes
- 23%
Advantages Why Penguins can win
- Back-to-back: Golden Knights played last night, Penguins did not. Teams on the second night win less often, and often start their backup goalie.
- Home ice: Penguins play at home, with the last line change; home teams win about 54% of NHL games.
- Recent form: average goal margin over the last five games, Penguins +0.4, Golden Knights -1.2.
- Team matchup: no unit-against-unit mismatch clearly favors Penguins. The nearest thing to one: their finishing (15th of 32) meets the Golden Knights goaltending (16th), close to even, so this is more about execution than one area to exploit.
- Star matchup: no key position clearly favors Penguins. The closest: in goal, Adin Hill (Golden Knights: 0.891 save percentage in 7 starts) is about even with Arturs Silovs (Penguins: 0.889 in 9).
- The betting market agrees: Penguins 52% to win on the moneyline, after removing the sportsbooks' margin.
- Simulation: Penguins win 2,585 of 5,000 simulated games.
Disadvantages Why Penguins may not
- Goal differential per game: Golden Knights 7th (+0.50), Penguins 21st (-0.14) of 32.
- Season-long ratings: betting lines have rated Golden Knights about 0.19 goals a game stronger over recent games.
- Recent goal margins, adjusted for opponents: worth about 0.10 goals to Golden Knights in our ratings.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations Penguins lose by 3 goals or more.
- Team matchup: where Golden Knights can push back. Their scoring (10th of 32) meets the Penguins goal prevention (25th), so look for them to turn chances into goals against a team that gives them up. And their finishing (14th of 32) meets the Penguins goaltending (27th): a chance to bury the chances they get.
- Star matchup: At wing, Mark Stone (Golden Knights: 10 G, 8 A in 16 games, 18 min a night) has the edge on Rickard Rakell (Penguins: 4 G, 4 A in 14 games, 20 min a night; filling in for Bryan Rust, injured reserve); best skater against best skater, Jack Eichel (Golden Knights: 7 G, 13 A in 16 games, 20 min a night) has the edge on Erik Karlsson (Penguins: 3 G, 13 A in 14 games, 23 min a night; filling in for Evgeni Malkin, out).
- Upset odds: Golden Knights win 2,415 of 5,000 simulations (48%). A 52% pick still loses about 5 times in 10. About 23% of the simulations went past regulation.
In goal
VGK Golden Knights
- ExpectedAdin Hill0.891 save %, 7 starts, -2.6 goals saved above average
PIT Penguins
- ConfirmedArturs Silovs0.889 save %, 9 starts, -3.9 goals saved above average
"Confirmed" and "Expected" are ESPN's. Starters are usually named at the morning skate or in warmups; until then we expect the team's usual starter, or the backup on the second night of a back-to-back.
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Team news
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Headlines from ESPN and CBS Sports, each linked to the full story. Injuries, lineups, suspensions and coaching news come first. We leave out rumors, gossip about players' private lives and betting promos.
Who's out
VGK Golden Knights
- Nobody listed out or questionable.
PIT Penguins
- Sat outBryan Rustsat out last game
- OutEvgeni Malkin Cout · ESPN team rosters, Nov 3, 2026
Regulars who sat out a team's last game count as likely out (box scores). Also checked: who played in recent games, ESPN team rosters, ESPN and CBS Sports news. Players out or doubtful are never counted as a strength.
Side by sideStandings
| VGK | PIT | |
|---|---|---|
| 9-5-2 | Record | 5-7-2 |
| +0.50 7 | Goal differential/game | -0.14 21 |
| 3.44 10 | Goals per game | 3.36 14 |
| 2.94 9 | Goals allowed | 3.50 25 |
| 52.9% 9 | Shot share | 50.2% 12 |
| 28.8 8 | Shots per game | 28.1 10 |
| 25.6 9 | Shots allowed | 27.9 20 |
| 11.9% 14 | Shooting % | 11.9% 15 |
| 0.893 16 | Save % | 0.882 27 |
| 0.81 9 | Power-play goals/game | 0.57 19 |
| 8.5 12 | Penalty minutes/game | 6.3 2 |
| 56.9% 14 | Faceoffs won | 52.3% 27 |
| -0.10 27 | Strength of schedule | +0.01 13 |
Small numbers are ranks among the 32 NHL teams (1 = best). Records are wins, regulation losses and overtime or shootout losses. Strength of schedule is the average rating of opponents faced, in goals (2026-27 season).
Last 5 meetings
- Penguins 2 @ Golden Knights 6Oct 17, 2026
- Penguins 2 @ Golden Knights 6Mar 12, 2026
- Golden Knights 0 @ Penguins 5Mar 1, 2026
- Golden Knights 2 @ Penguins 3Mar 11, 2025 · OT
- Penguins 0 @ Golden Knights 4Mar 7, 2025
Your pick
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What changed
Nothing since our first call ().
Based on market line + adjustments. How it works
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