Game day
Puck dropWho's playing
The line
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | DAL -108 WSH -112 | DAL +102 WSH -102 fair |
| Puck line | WSH -1.5 (+225) | WSH covers 28% |
| Total goals | 5.5 | 5.5 · over 42% |
Line: , ESPN. Odds move; check a book before acting. In hockey the moneyline carries the market's view; the puck line is almost always 1.5 goals, with the price doing the work.
5,000 simulated games
- Expected goals
- WSH 2.8, DAL 2.8
- 8 in 10 games
- DAL by 3 to WSH by 3
- Tied after 60 minutes
- 24%
Advantages Why Capitals can win
- Home ice: Capitals play at home, with the last line change; home teams win about 54% of NHL games.
- Strength of schedule: Capitals 4th (+0.17), Stars 14th (+0.01) of 32.
- Relative strength: Capitals rank 11th of 32 in shooting percentage (12.2%).
- Team matchup: no unit-against-unit mismatch clearly favors Capitals. The nearest thing to one: their finishing (11th of 32) meets the Stars goaltending (2nd), close to even, so this is more about execution than one area to exploit.
- Star matchup: no key position clearly favors Capitals. The closest: best skater against best skater, Alex Tuch (Capitals: 10 G, 2 A in 13 games, 19 min a night) is about even with Mikko Rantanen (Stars: 7 G, 10 A in 14 games, 20 min a night).
- The betting market agrees: Capitals 50% to win on the moneyline, after removing the sportsbooks' margin.
- Simulation: Capitals win 2,520 of 5,000 simulated games.
Disadvantages Why Capitals may not
- Season-long ratings: betting lines have rated Stars about 0.12 goals a game stronger over recent games.
- Shot margins: Stars have controlled play better (shots for and against, adjusted for opponents), worth about 0.11 goals to them in our ratings.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations Capitals lose by 3 goals or more.
- Shot share (their shots of all shots on goal): Stars 8th (53.4%), Capitals 15th (49.6%) of 32.
- Team matchup: a strength Capitals may not get to use. Their finishing (11th of 32) meets the Stars goaltending (2nd), one of the better units at stopping it, which can take away their plan to bury the chances they get.
- Star matchup: In goal, Jake Oettinger (Stars: 0.922 save percentage in 11 starts) has the edge on Logan Thompson (Capitals: 0.898 in 9).
- Upset odds: Stars win 2,480 of 5,000 simulations (50%). A 50% pick still loses about 5 times in 10. About 24% of the simulations went past regulation.
In goal
DAL Stars
- ConfirmedJake Oettinger0.922 save %, 11 starts, +3.8 goals saved above average
WSH Capitals
- ConfirmedLogan Thompson0.898 save %, 9 starts, -1.8 goals saved above average
"Confirmed" and "Expected" are ESPN's. Starters are usually named at the morning skate or in warmups; until then we expect the team's usual starter, or the backup on the second night of a back-to-back.
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Team news
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Headlines from ESPN and CBS Sports, each linked to the full story. Injuries, lineups, suspensions and coaching news come first. We leave out rumors, gossip about players' private lives and betting promos.
Who's out
DAL Stars
- Nobody listed out or questionable.
WSH Capitals
- Nobody listed out or questionable.
Regulars who sat out a team's last game count as likely out (box scores). Also checked: who played in recent games, ESPN team rosters, ESPN and CBS Sports news. Players out or doubtful are never counted as a strength.
Side by sideStandings
| DAL | WSH | |
|---|---|---|
| 8-5-1 | Record | 8-5-0 |
| +0.50 7 | Goal differential/game | +0.15 13 |
| 2.71 26 | Goals per game | 3.38 13 |
| 2.21 1 | Goals allowed | 3.23 16 |
| 53.4% 8 | Shot share | 49.6% 15 |
| 25.6 23 | Shots per game | 27.7 15 |
| 22.4 1 | Shots allowed | 28.2 22 |
| 10.6% 23 | Shooting % | 12.2% 11 |
| 0.914 2 | Save % | 0.896 12 |
| 0.50 23 | Power-play goals/game | 0.46 29 |
| 9.0 14 | Penalty minutes/game | 9.9 19 |
| 61.2% 1 | Faceoffs won | 57.0% 13 |
| +0.01 14 | Strength of schedule | +0.17 4 |
Small numbers are ranks among the 32 NHL teams (1 = best). Records are wins, regulation losses and overtime or shootout losses. Strength of schedule is the average rating of opponents faced, in goals (2026-27 season).
Last 5 meetings
- Stars 4 @ Capitals 1Jan 7, 2026
- Capitals 0 @ Stars 1Oct 28, 2025
- Capitals 1 @ Stars 3Dec 16, 2024
- Stars 2 @ Capitals 3Oct 17, 2024
- Capitals 4 @ Stars 5Jan 27, 2024 · OT
Your pick
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What changed
Nothing since our first call ().
Based on market line + adjustments. How it works
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