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UTAH

Mammoth @ Canadiens

NHL · · Centre Bell

MTL

Game day

Puck drop

Warmups

Our pick
UTAHUtah Mammoth
50% to win
ModelUTAH 50%MTL 50%
MarketUTAH 50%MTL 50%

Same as the market. Not a promise: a 50% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.

The line

MarketAZMango
MoneylineUTAH -112
MTL -108		UTAH -102
MTL +102 fair
Puck lineUTAH -1.5 (+200)UTAH covers 29%
Total goals6.56.5 · over 50%

Line: , DraftKings. Odds move; check a book before acting. In hockey the moneyline carries the market's view; the puck line is almost always 1.5 goals, with the price doing the work.

5,000 simulated games

Expected goals
MTL 3.2, UTAH 3.2
8 in 10 games
UTAH by 3 to MTL by 3
Tied after 60 minutes
23%
Live oddsBetMGM DraftKings FanDuel Unpaid links. We take no bets.

Advantages Why Mammoth can win

  1. Shot share (their shots of all shots on goal): Mammoth 3rd (55.1%), Canadiens 25th (48.5%) of 32.
  2. Shot margins: Mammoth have controlled play better (shots for and against, adjusted for opponents), worth about 0.28 goals to them in our ratings.
  3. Power-play goals per game: Mammoth 2nd (1.25), Canadiens 31st (0.40) of 32.
  4. Team matchup: where Mammoth can take advantage. Their power play (2nd of 32) meets the Canadiens discipline (26th), so look for them to cash in on the power plays a penalty-prone team hands out. And their shot volume (4th of 32) meets the Canadiens shot suppression (23rd): a chance to pile up shots and make the goalie work all night.
  5. Star matchup: On defense, Mikhail Sergachev (Mammoth: 5 G, 14 A in 16 games, 24 min a night) has the edge on Lane Hutson (Canadiens: 3 G, 11 A in 15 games, 25 min a night); best skater against best skater, Clayton Keller (Mammoth: 4 G, 17 A in 16 games, 18 min a night) has the edge on Cole Caufield (Canadiens: 10 G, 4 A in 15 games, 19 min a night; filling in for Nick Suzuki, missed the last 6 games).
  6. The betting market agrees: Mammoth 50% to win on the moneyline, after removing the sportsbooks' margin.
  7. Simulation: Mammoth win 2,520 of 5,000 simulated games.

Disadvantages Why Mammoth may not

  1. In goal: Jacob Fowler (Canadiens expected starter, 0.925 save percentage in 9 starts) has been the better goalie lately than Karel Vejmelka (Mammoth expected starter, 0.871 save percentage in 11 starts), worth about 0.50 goals a game in our ratings.
  2. Home ice: Canadiens play at home, with the last line change; home teams win about 54% of NHL games.
  3. Recent form: average goal margin over the last five games, Canadiens +1.2, Mammoth -0.4.
  4. Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations Mammoth lose by 3 goals or more.
  5. Team matchup: where Canadiens can push back. Their finishing (8th of 32) meets the Mammoth goaltending (30th), so look for them to bury the chances they get. And their scoring (11th of 32) meets the Mammoth goal prevention (20th): a chance to turn chances into goals against a team that gives them up.
  6. Star matchup: In goal, Jacob Fowler (Canadiens: 0.925 save percentage in 9 starts) has the edge on Karel Vejmelka (Mammoth: 0.871 in 11).
  7. Upset odds: Canadiens win 2,480 of 5,000 simulations (50%). A 50% pick still loses about 5 times in 10. About 23% of the simulations went past regulation.

In goal

UTAH Mammoth

  • ExpectedKarel Vejmelka0.871 save %, 11 starts, -9.6 goals saved above average

MTL Canadiens

  • ExpectedJacob Fowler0.925 save %, 9 starts, +5.5 goals saved above average

"Confirmed" and "Expected" are as reported. Starters are usually named at the morning skate or in warmups; until then we expect the team's usual starter, or the backup on the second night of a back-to-back.

🥭 Mango Sliced Facts

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Team news

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Each headline links to the full story. Injuries, lineups, suspensions and coaching news come first. We leave out rumors, gossip about players' private lives and betting promos.

Who's out

UTAH Mammoth

  • Sat outKailer Yamamotosat out last game

MTL Canadiens

  • OutMike Matheson Dout · ESPN team rosters, Oct 31, 2026

Regulars who sat out a team's last game count as likely out (box scores). Also checked: who played in recent games, ESPN team rosters, ESPN and CBS Sports news. Players out or doubtful are never counted as a strength.

Side by sideStandings

UTAHMTL
10-6-0Record9-3-3
+0.19 13Goal differential/game+0.33 11
3.56 9Goals per game3.47 11
3.38 20Goals allowed3.13 13
55.1% 3Shot share48.5% 25
30.2 4Shots per game27.1 17
24.6 5Shots allowed28.9 23
11.8% 15Shooting %12.8% 8
0.871 30Save %0.898 9
1.25 2Power-play goals/game0.40 31
9.9 18Penalty minutes/game11.0 26
58.6% 7Faceoffs won56.8% 12
+0.04 10Strength of schedule-0.07 24

Small numbers are ranks among the 32 NHL teams (1 = best). Records are wins, regulation losses and overtime or shootout losses. Strength of schedule is the average rating of opponents faced, in goals (2026-27 season).

Last 4 meetings

  • Canadiens 4 @ Mammoth 3Nov 26, 2025
  • Mammoth 2 @ Canadiens 6Nov 8, 2025
  • Canadiens 5 @ Mammoth 3Jan 14, 2025
  • Mammoth 3 @ Canadiens 2Nov 26, 2024 · OT

What if?

Mammoth50%
50%Canadiens

Based on market line + adjustments. How it works

This matchup on any day (power ratings only)

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