- Blackhawks 4-10-1 · 9 pts · 15th West · 8th Central Division · L3
- Lightning 9-3-2 · 20 pts · 4th East · 3rd Atlantic Division · W1
Game day
Puck dropWho's playing
The line
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | CHI +300 TB -380 | CHI +317 TB -317 fair |
| Puck line | TB -1.5 (-142) | TB covers 55% |
| Total goals | 6.5 | 6.5 · over 48% |
Line: , DraftKings. Odds move; check a book before acting. In hockey the moneyline carries the market's view; the puck line is almost always 1.5 goals, with the price doing the work.
5,000 simulated games
- Expected goals
- TB 4.2, CHI 2.4
- 8 in 10 games
- CHI by 2 to TB by 5
- Tied after 60 minutes
- 18%
Advantages Why Lightning can win
- Season-long ratings: betting lines have rated Lightning about 0.50 goals a game stronger over recent games.
- Goal differential per game: Lightning 9th (+0.50), Blackhawks 32nd (-1.67) of 32.
- Shot margins: Lightning have controlled play better (shots for and against, adjusted for opponents), worth about 0.47 goals to them in our ratings.
- In goal: Andrei Vasilevskiy (Lightning expected starter, 0.879 save percentage in 11 starts) has been the better goalie lately than Arvid Soderblom (Blackhawks expected starter, 0.829 save percentage in 3 starts), worth about 0.28 goals a game in our ratings.
- Team matchup: where Lightning can take advantage. Their scoring (4th of 32) meets the Blackhawks goal prevention (31st), so look for them to turn chances into goals against a team that gives them up. And their shot volume (6th of 32) meets the Blackhawks shot suppression (29th): a chance to pile up shots and make the goalie work all night.
- Star matchup: Best skater against best skater, Brandon Hagel (Lightning: 8 G, 8 A in 14 games, 22 min a night) has the edge on Connor Bedard (Blackhawks: 4 G, 6 A in 9 games, 21 min a night; filling in for Patrick Kane, out).
- Simulation: Lightning win 3,800 of 5,000 simulated games.
Disadvantages Why Lightning may not
- Strength of schedule: Blackhawks 7th (+0.10), Lightning 22nd (-0.04) of 32.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations Lightning lose by 2 goals or more.
- Weak spot: Lightning rank 30th of 32 in faceoffs won (51.5%).
- Weak spot: Lightning rank 28th of 32 in team save percentage (0.881).
- Team matchup: Blackhawks have no clear unit-against-unit edge, so their path runs through a hot goalie, special teams and a few lucky bounces.
- Star matchup: the key positions lean Lightning on paper, but Connor Bedard (4 G, 6 A in 9 games, 21 min a night; filling in for Patrick Kane, out) is the kind of player who can swing one game.
- Upset odds: Blackhawks win 1,200 of 5,000 simulations (24%). A 76% pick still loses about 2 times in 10. About 18% of the simulations went past regulation.
In goal
CHI Blackhawks
- ExpectedArvid Soderblom0.829 save %, 3 starts, -6.2 goals saved above average
TB Lightning
- ExpectedAndrei Vasilevskiy0.879 save %, 11 starts, -6.9 goals saved above average
"Confirmed" and "Expected" are as reported. Starters are usually named at the morning skate or in warmups; until then we expect the team's usual starter, or the backup on the second night of a back-to-back.
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Team news
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Who's out
CHI Blackhawks
- OutPatrick Kane RWout · ESPN team rosters, Nov 3, 2026
TB Lightning
- Nobody listed out or questionable.
Regulars who sat out a team's last game count as likely out (box scores). Also checked: who played in recent games, ESPN team rosters, ESPN and CBS Sports news. Players out or doubtful are never counted as a strength.
Side by sideStandings
| CHI | TB | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-10-1 | Record | 9-3-2 |
| -1.67 32 | Goal differential/game | +0.50 9 |
| 2.20 31 | Goals per game | 3.71 4 |
| 3.87 31 | Goals allowed | 3.21 17 |
| 43.2% 31 | Shot share | 54.8% 4 |
| 23.0 31 | Shots per game | 29.9 6 |
| 30.3 29 | Shots allowed | 24.6 6 |
| 9.6% 29 | Shooting % | 12.4% 11 |
| 0.883 24 | Save % | 0.881 28 |
| 0.33 32 | Power-play goals/game | 0.57 20 |
| 9.5 16 | Penalty minutes/game | 7.9 5 |
| 47.2% 32 | Faceoffs won | 51.5% 30 |
| +0.10 7 | Strength of schedule | -0.04 22 |
Small numbers are ranks among the 32 NHL teams (1 = best). Records are wins, regulation losses and overtime or shootout losses. Strength of schedule is the average rating of opponents faced, in goals (2026-27 season).
Last 5 meetings
- Lightning 2 @ Blackhawks 1Jan 23, 2026 · Shootout
- Blackhawks 3 @ Lightning 2Oct 23, 2025
- Blackhawks 4 @ Lightning 1Jan 28, 2025
- Lightning 4 @ Blackhawks 3Jan 24, 2025 · OT
- Lightning 4 @ Blackhawks 2Nov 16, 2023
Your pick
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What if?
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