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PHI

Flyers @ Rangers

NHL · · Madison Square Garden

NYR

Game day

Puck drop

Warmups

Our pick
NYRNew York Rangers
58% to win
ModelPHI 42%NYR 58%
MarketPHI 42%NYR 58%

Same as the market. Not a promise: a 58% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.

The line

MarketAZMango
MoneylinePHI +130
NYR -155		PHI +140
NYR -140 fair
Puck lineNYR -1.5 (+145)NYR covers 37%
Total goals6.56.5 · over 48%

Line: , DraftKings. Odds move; check a book before acting. In hockey the moneyline carries the market's view; the puck line is almost always 1.5 goals, with the price doing the work.

5,000 simulated games

Expected goals
NYR 3.5, PHI 3.0
8 in 10 games
PHI by 3 to NYR by 4
Tied after 60 minutes
22%
Live oddsBetMGM DraftKings FanDuel Unpaid links. We take no bets.

Advantages Why Rangers can win

  1. Goal differential per game: Rangers 16th (+0.06), Flyers 30th (-1.24) of 32.
  2. Home ice: Rangers play at home, with the last line change; home teams win about 54% of NHL games.
  3. Season-long ratings: betting lines have rated Rangers about 0.12 goals a game stronger over recent games.
  4. Team matchup: no unit-against-unit mismatch clearly favors Rangers. The nearest thing to one: their finishing (13th of 32) meets the Flyers goaltending (15th), close to even, so this is more about execution than one area to exploit.
  5. Star matchup: Best skater against best skater, Adam Fox (Rangers: 2 G, 17 A in 16 games, 22 min a night) has the edge on Matvei Michkov (Flyers: 10 G, 3 A in 17 games, 16 min a night).
  6. The betting market agrees: Rangers 58% to win on the moneyline, after removing the sportsbooks' margin.
  7. Simulation: Rangers win 2,915 of 5,000 simulated games.

Disadvantages Why Rangers may not

  1. In goal: Dan Vladar (Flyers expected starter, 0.883 save percentage in 9 starts) has been the better goalie lately than James Reimer (Rangers expected starter, 0.625 save percentage in 1 starts), worth about 0.26 goals a game in our ratings.
  2. Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations Rangers lose by 3 goals or more.
  3. Strength of schedule: Flyers 2nd (+0.19), Rangers 14th (+0.02) of 32.
  4. Weak spot: Rangers rank 27th of 32 in shots on goal per game (25.12).
  5. Team matchup: Flyers have no clear unit-against-unit edge, so their path runs through a hot goalie, special teams and a few lucky bounces.
  6. Star matchup: the key positions lean Rangers on paper, but Matvei Michkov (10 G, 3 A in 17 games, 16 min a night) is the kind of player who can swing one game.
  7. Upset odds: Flyers win 2,085 of 5,000 simulations (42%). A 58% pick still loses about 4 times in 10. About 22% of the simulations went past regulation.

In goal

PHI Flyers

  • ExpectedDan Vladar0.883 save %, 9 starts, -5.4 goals saved above average

NYR Rangers

  • ExpectedJames Reimer0.625 save %, 1 starts, -2.2 goals saved above average

"Confirmed" and "Expected" are as reported. Starters are usually named at the morning skate or in warmups; until then we expect the team's usual starter, or the backup on the second night of a back-to-back.

🥭 Mango Sliced Facts

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Team news

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Each headline links to the full story. Injuries, lineups, suspensions and coaching news come first. We leave out rumors, gossip about players' private lives and betting promos.

Who's out

PHI Flyers

  • Nobody listed out or questionable.

NYR Rangers

  • OutIgor Shesterkin Ginjured reserve · ESPN team rosters, Oct 11, 2026

Regulars who sat out a team's last game count as likely out (box scores). Also checked: who played in recent games, ESPN team rosters, ESPN and CBS Sports news. Players out or doubtful are never counted as a strength.

Side by sideStandings

PHINYR
4-9-4Record8-7-1
-1.24 30Goal differential/game+0.06 16
2.18 32Goals per game3.00 20
3.41 22Goals allowed2.94 9
44.3% 30Shot share48.6% 22
23.3 30Shots per game25.1 27
29.3 26Shots allowed26.6 11
9.3% 30Shooting %11.9% 13
0.892 15Save %0.904 5
0.53 25Power-play goals/game0.50 26
10.0 19Penalty minutes/game9.9 17
54.6% 23Faceoffs won59.0% 5
+0.19 2Strength of schedule+0.02 14

Small numbers are ranks among the 32 NHL teams (1 = best). Records are wins, regulation losses and overtime or shootout losses. Strength of schedule is the average rating of opponents faced, in goals (2026-27 season).

Last 5 meetings

  • Rangers 6 @ Flyers 2Mar 9, 2026
  • Flyers 3 @ Rangers 2Feb 26, 2026 · OT
  • Rangers 6 @ Flyers 3Jan 17, 2026
  • Flyers 4 @ Rangers 5Dec 20, 2025 · Shootout
  • Flyers 8 @ Rangers 5Apr 9, 2025

What if?

Flyers42%
58%Rangers

Based on market line + adjustments. How it works

This matchup on any day (power ratings only)

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