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BOS

Bruins @ Penguins

NHL · · PPG Paints Arena

PIT

Game day

Puck drop

Warmups

Our pick
PITPittsburgh Penguins
50% to win
ModelBOS 50%PIT 50%
MarketBOS 50%PIT 50%

Same as the market. Not a promise: a 50% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.

The line

MarketAZMango
MoneylineBOS -108
PIT -112		BOS +102
PIT -102 fair
Puck linePIT -1.5 (+210)PIT covers 30%
Total goals6.56.5 · over 50%

Line: , DraftKings. Odds move; check a book before acting. In hockey the moneyline carries the market's view; the puck line is almost always 1.5 goals, with the price doing the work.

5,000 simulated games

Expected goals
PIT 3.3, BOS 3.2
8 in 10 games
BOS by 3 to PIT by 3
Tied after 60 minutes
23%
Live oddsBetMGM DraftKings FanDuel Unpaid links. We take no bets.

Advantages Why Penguins can win

  1. Home ice: Penguins play at home, with the last line change; home teams win about 54% of NHL games.
  2. Shot margins: Penguins have controlled play better (shots for and against, adjusted for opponents), worth about 0.17 goals to them in our ratings.
  3. Due to cool off? Bruins rank 2nd of 32 in shooting plus save percentage (1055); numbers that high usually drift back toward 1,000.
  4. Team matchup: where Penguins can take advantage. Their shot volume (14th of 32) meets the Bruins shot suppression (20th), so look for them to pile up shots and make the goalie work all night. And their power play (23rd of 32) meets the Bruins discipline (29th): a chance to cash in on the power plays a penalty-prone team hands out.
  5. Star matchup: no key position clearly favors Penguins. The closest: at center, James Hagens (Bruins: 6 G, 6 A in 16 games, 13 min a night) is about even with Tommy Novak (Penguins: 5 G, 7 A in 15 games, 16 min a night).
  6. The betting market agrees: Penguins 50% to win on the moneyline, after removing the sportsbooks' margin.
  7. Simulation: Penguins win 2,520 of 5,000 simulated games.

Disadvantages Why Penguins may not

  1. In goal: Jeremy Swayman (Bruins expected starter, 0.912 save percentage in 12 starts) has been the better goalie lately than Arturs Silovs (Penguins expected starter, 0.887 save percentage in 10 starts), worth about 0.39 goals a game in our ratings.
  2. Goal differential per game: Bruins 2nd (+1.25), Penguins 22nd (-0.20) of 32.
  3. Recent goal margins, adjusted for opponents: worth about 0.13 goals to Bruins in our ratings.
  4. Faceoffs won: Bruins 2nd (61.1%), Penguins 27th (52.6%) of 32.
  5. Team matchup: where Bruins can push back. Their finishing (5th of 32) meets the Penguins goaltending (27th), so look for them to bury the chances they get. And their scoring (7th of 32) meets the Penguins goal prevention (25th): a chance to turn chances into goals against a team that gives them up.
  6. Star matchup: In goal, Jeremy Swayman (Bruins: 0.912 save percentage in 12 starts) has the edge on Arturs Silovs (Penguins: 0.887 in 10); best skater against best skater, David Pastrnak (Bruins: 8 G, 12 A in 16 games, 20 min a night) has the edge on Erik Karlsson (Penguins: 3 G, 13 A in 15 games, 23 min a night; filling in for Evgeni Malkin, missed the last game).
  7. Upset odds: Bruins win 2,480 of 5,000 simulations (50%). A 50% pick still loses about 5 times in 10. About 23% of the simulations went past regulation.

In goal

BOS Bruins

  • ExpectedJeremy Swayman0.912 save %, 12 starts, +2.4 goals saved above average

PIT Penguins

  • ExpectedArturs Silovs0.887 save %, 10 starts, -4.7 goals saved above average

"Confirmed" and "Expected" are as reported. Starters are usually named at the morning skate or in warmups; until then we expect the team's usual starter, or the backup on the second night of a back-to-back.

🥭 Mango Sliced Facts

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AI answers can be wrong; the numbers above rule. Not betting advice.

Team news

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Each headline links to the full story. Injuries, lineups, suspensions and coaching news come first. We leave out rumors, gossip about players' private lives and betting promos.

Who's out

BOS Bruins

  • QuestionableMatthew Poitras Cday-to-day · ESPN team rosters, Nov 3, 2026

PIT Penguins

  • Sat outEvgeni Malkinsat out last game
  • Sat outBryan Rustsat out last game

Regulars who sat out a team's last game count as likely out (box scores). Also checked: who played in recent games, ESPN team rosters, ESPN and CBS Sports news. Players out or doubtful are never counted as a strength.

Side by sideStandings

BOSPIT
11-4-1Record5-8-2
+1.25 2Goal differential/game-0.20 22
3.62 7Goals per game3.27 15
2.38 3Goals allowed3.47 25
48.6% 21Shot share50.3% 12
26.3 20Shots per game27.9 14
27.9 20Shots allowed27.6 18
13.8% 5Shooting %11.7% 16
0.917 1Save %0.882 27
0.62 16Power-play goals/game0.53 23
12.4 29Penalty minutes/game6.4 2
61.1% 2Faceoffs won52.6% 27
-0.04 21Strength of schedule+0.04 11

Small numbers are ranks among the 32 NHL teams (1 = best). Records are wins, regulation losses and overtime or shootout losses. Strength of schedule is the average rating of opponents faced, in goals (2026-27 season).

Last 5 meetings

  • Bruins 4 @ Penguins 5Mar 8, 2026 · OT
  • Penguins 1 @ Bruins 2Mar 3, 2026
  • Penguins 0 @ Bruins 1Jan 11, 2026
  • Bruins 4 @ Penguins 1Apr 13, 2025
  • Bruins 3 @ Penguins 2Mar 1, 2025

What if?

Bruins50%
50%Penguins

Based on market line + adjustments. How it works

This matchup on any day (power ratings only)

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