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ANA

Ducks @ Oilers

NHL · · Rogers Place

EDM

Game day

Puck drop

Warmups

Our pick
EDMEdmonton Oilers
64% to win
ModelANA 36%EDM 64%
MarketANA 36%EDM 64%

Same as the market. Not a promise: a 64% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.

The line

MarketAZMango
MoneylineANA +164
EDM -198		ANA +175
EDM -175 fair
Puck lineEDM -1.5 (+120)EDM covers 42%
Total goals6.56.5 · over 49%

Line: , DraftKings. Odds move; check a book before acting. In hockey the moneyline carries the market's view; the puck line is almost always 1.5 goals, with the price doing the work.

5,000 simulated games

Expected goals
EDM 3.7, ANA 2.8
8 in 10 games
ANA by 3 to EDM by 4
Tied after 60 minutes
21%
Live oddsBetMGM DraftKings FanDuel Unpaid links. We take no bets.

Advantages Why Oilers can win

  1. Goal differential per game: Oilers 3rd (+1.19), Ducks 22nd (-0.20) of 32.
  2. In goal: Tristan Jarry (Oilers expected starter, 0.903 save percentage in 8 starts) has been the better goalie lately than Lukas Dostal (Ducks expected starter, 0.872 save percentage in 9 starts), worth about 0.27 goals a game in our ratings.
  3. Home ice: Oilers play at home, with the last line change; home teams win about 54% of NHL games.
  4. Team matchup: where Oilers can take advantage. Their finishing (1st of 32) meets the Ducks goaltending (31st), so look for them to bury the chances they get. And their power play (3rd of 32) meets the Ducks discipline (32nd): a chance to cash in on the power plays a penalty-prone team hands out.
  5. Star matchup: Best skater against best skater, Connor McDavid (Oilers: 9 G, 31 A in 16 games, 24 min a night) has the edge on Leo Carlsson (Ducks: 5 G, 17 A in 15 games, 20 min a night); in goal, Tristan Jarry (Oilers: 0.903 save percentage in 8 starts) has the edge on Lukas Dostal (Ducks: 0.872 in 9).
  6. The betting market agrees: Oilers 64% to win on the moneyline, after removing the sportsbooks' margin.
  7. Simulation: Oilers win 3,185 of 5,000 simulated games.

Disadvantages Why Oilers may not

  1. Due to cool off? Oilers rank 1st of 32 in shooting plus save percentage (1061); numbers that high usually drift back toward 1,000.
  2. Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations Oilers lose by 3 goals or more.
  3. Weak spot: Oilers rank 24th of 32 in faceoffs won (54.5%).
  4. Weak spot: Oilers rank 23rd of 32 in shots on goal per game (25.62).
  5. Team matchup: where Ducks can push back. Their power play (1st of 32) meets the Oilers discipline (11th), so look for them to cash in on the power plays a penalty-prone team hands out. And their finishing (3rd of 32) meets the Oilers goaltending (10th): a chance to bury the chances they get.
  6. Star matchup: the key positions lean Oilers on paper, but Leo Carlsson (5 G, 17 A in 15 games, 20 min a night) is the kind of player who can swing one game.
  7. Upset odds: Ducks win 1,815 of 5,000 simulations (36%). A 64% pick still loses about 4 times in 10. About 21% of the simulations went past regulation.

In goal

ANA Ducks

  • ExpectedLukas Dostal0.872 save %, 9 starts, -8.0 goals saved above average

EDM Oilers

  • ExpectedTristan Jarry0.903 save %, 8 starts, -0.4 goals saved above average

"Confirmed" and "Expected" are as reported. Starters are usually named at the morning skate or in warmups; until then we expect the team's usual starter, or the backup on the second night of a back-to-back.

🥭 Mango Sliced Facts

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Team news

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Each headline links to the full story. Injuries, lineups, suspensions and coaching news come first. We leave out rumors, gossip about players' private lives and betting promos.

Who's out

ANA Ducks

  • Sat outA.J. Greersat out last game
  • Sat outFrank Vatranosat out last game

EDM Oilers

  • OutDevon Levi Ginjured reserve · ESPN team rosters, Oct 24, 2026

Regulars who sat out a team's last game count as likely out (box scores). Also checked: who played in recent games, ESPN team rosters, ESPN and CBS Sports news. Players out or doubtful are never counted as a strength.

Side by sideStandings

ANAEDM
7-7-1Record11-2-3
-0.20 22Goal differential/game+1.19 3
3.60 8Goals per game4.19 1
3.80 30Goals allowed3.00 10
47.6% 26Shot share48.8% 16
24.8 29Shots per game25.6 23
27.3 16Shots allowed26.9 12
14.5% 3Shooting %16.3% 1
0.866 31Save %0.898 10
1.27 1Power-play goals/game1.19 3
13.4 32Penalty minutes/game8.5 11
54.7% 22Faceoffs won54.5% 24
-0.12 28Strength of schedule-0.13 29

Small numbers are ranks among the 32 NHL teams (1 = best). Records are wins, regulation losses and overtime or shootout losses. Strength of schedule is the average rating of opponents faced, in goals (2026-27 season).

Last 5 meetings

  • Oilers 5 @ Ducks 2Oct 7, 2026
  • Oilers 2 @ Ducks 5Apr 30, 2026 · Playoffs
  • Ducks 1 @ Oilers 4Apr 28, 2026 · Playoffs
  • Oilers 3 @ Ducks 4Apr 26, 2026 · Playoffs OT
  • Oilers 4 @ Ducks 7Apr 24, 2026 · Playoffs

What if?

Ducks36%
64%Oilers

Based on market line + adjustments. How it works

This matchup on any day (power ratings only)

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