Game day
Puck dropWho's playing
The line
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | NSH +195 COL -238 | NSH +208 COL -208 fair |
| Puck line | COL -1.5 (+100) | COL covers 47% |
| Total goals | 6.5 | 6.5 · over 49% |
Line: , DraftKings. Odds move; check a book before acting. In hockey the moneyline carries the market's view; the puck line is almost always 1.5 goals, with the price doing the work.
5,000 simulated games
- Expected goals
- COL 3.9, NSH 2.6
- 8 in 10 games
- NSH by 2 to COL by 4
- Tied after 60 minutes
- 20%
Advantages Why Avalanche can win
- Season-long ratings: betting lines have rated Avalanche about 0.41 goals a game stronger over recent games.
- Shot margins: Avalanche have controlled play better (shots for and against, adjusted for opponents), worth about 0.41 goals to them in our ratings.
- Goal differential per game: Avalanche 5th (+0.81), Predators 21st (-0.13) of 32.
- Team matchup: where Avalanche can take advantage. Their shot volume (3rd of 32) meets the Predators shot suppression (24th), so look for them to pile up shots and make the goalie work all night. And their scoring (2nd of 32) meets the Predators goal prevention (16th): a chance to turn chances into goals against a team that gives them up.
- Star matchup: Best skater against best skater, Nathan MacKinnon (Avalanche: 9 G, 18 A in 16 games, 20 min a night) has the edge on Filip Forsberg (Predators: 5 G, 14 A in 15 games, 20 min a night).
- Simulation: Avalanche win 3,375 of 5,000 simulated games.
- The betting market agrees: Avalanche 68% to win on the moneyline, after removing the sportsbooks' margin.
Disadvantages Why Avalanche may not
- Strength of schedule: Predators 1st (+0.19), Avalanche 27th (-0.09) of 32.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations Avalanche lose by 2 goals or more.
- Power-play goals per game: Predators 5th (1.00), Avalanche 15th (0.69) of 32.
- Hockey luck: one bounce, a deflection or a hot goalie decides more games than in any other major sport.
- Team matchup: where Predators can push back. Their finishing (14th of 32) meets the Avalanche goaltending (21st), so look for them to bury the chances they get.
- Star matchup: In goal, Juuse Saros (Predators: 0.908 save percentage in 11 starts) has the edge on Mackenzie Blackwood (Avalanche: 0.893 in 11).
- Upset odds: Predators win 1,625 of 5,000 simulations (32%). A 68% pick still loses about 3 times in 10. About 20% of the simulations went past regulation.
In goal
NSH Predators
- ExpectedJuuse Saros0.908 save %, 11 starts, +1.0 goals saved above average
COL Avalanche
- ExpectedMackenzie Blackwood0.893 save %, 11 starts, -3.5 goals saved above average
"Confirmed" and "Expected" are as reported. Starters are usually named at the morning skate or in warmups; until then we expect the team's usual starter, or the backup on the second night of a back-to-back.
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Team news
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Each headline links to the full story. Injuries, lineups, suspensions and coaching news come first. We leave out rumors, gossip about players' private lives and betting promos.
Who's out
NSH Predators
- Nobody listed out or questionable.
COL Avalanche
- Nobody listed out or questionable.
Regulars who sat out a team's last game count as likely out (box scores). Also checked: who played in recent games, ESPN team rosters, ESPN and CBS Sports news. Players out or doubtful are never counted as a strength.
Side by sideStandings
| NSH | COL | |
|---|---|---|
| 6-4-5 | Record | 9-6-1 |
| -0.13 21 | Goal differential/game | +0.81 5 |
| 3.07 19 | Goals per game | 4.12 2 |
| 3.20 16 | Goals allowed | 3.31 19 |
| 47.0% 28 | Shot share | 52.7% 10 |
| 25.7 21 | Shots per game | 30.4 3 |
| 29.0 24 | Shots allowed | 27.3 17 |
| 11.9% 14 | Shooting % | 13.6% 6 |
| 0.897 12 | Save % | 0.886 21 |
| 1.00 5 | Power-play goals/game | 0.69 15 |
| 6.9 4 | Penalty minutes/game | 7.9 6 |
| 56.5% 15 | Faceoffs won | 55.8% 20 |
| +0.19 1 | Strength of schedule | -0.09 27 |
Small numbers are ranks among the 32 NHL teams (1 = best). Records are wins, regulation losses and overtime or shootout losses. Strength of schedule is the average rating of opponents faced, in goals (2026-27 season).
Last 5 meetings
- Avalanche 2 @ Predators 6Oct 25, 2026
- Predators 7 @ Avalanche 3Jan 16, 2026
- Predators 2 @ Avalanche 4Dec 13, 2025
- Avalanche 3 @ Predators 4Dec 9, 2025 · Shootout
- Avalanche 3 @ Predators 0Nov 22, 2025
Your pick
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What if?
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