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Getafe @ Villarreal

La Liga · · Estadio de la Cerámica

VIL

Getafe 3-3-5 · 12 pts · 13th La Liga · Form DDLLW
Villarreal 3-3-5 · 12 pts · 9th La Liga · Form DLWLL

Game day

Kickoff

Lineups

Our pick
VILVillarreal
65% to win

Draw 21% · Getafe 14%

ModelGET 14%VIL 65%
MarketGET 14%VIL 65%

Same as the market. Not a promise: a 65% pick still loses about 3 times in 10. In soccer a draw counts as a loss for a win pick.

The line

MarketAZMango
VIL win-22565% · -190
Draw+35021% · +376
GET win+60014% · +640
VIL or draw–86%
GET or draw–35%
HandicapVIL -1.5 (+115)VIL 42%
Total 2.5O -130 · U EVENOver 57%

Line: , DraftKings. Odds move; check a book before acting. The chances shown are the market's (our own ratings didn't beat it in the backtest). Every bet here is settled on the score after 90 minutes plus stoppage time.

10,000 simulated matches

Expected goals
VIL 2.1, GET 0.8
Likeliest scores (VIL first)
2-0 (11%), 1-1 (10%), 1-0 (10%)
Both teams score
51%
Clean sheet
VIL 43% · GET 11%
Live oddsBetMGM DraftKings FanDuel Unpaid links. We take no bets.

Advantages Why Villarreal can win

  1. Goal difference: Villarreal are +0.00 a game this season (1.36 scored, 1.36 conceded); Getafe -0.73.
  2. Shots on target: Villarreal out-shoot opponents by +2.3 on target a game, Getafe by -2.0. Shots are a steadier guide than goals over a few weeks.
  3. Scoring: Villarreal score 1.36 goals a game, Getafe 0.73.
  4. Home and away: Villarreal are 1-1-3 at home, Getafe 0-0-5 on the road (wins-draws-losses).
  5. Ratings: our goal ratings (results, shots and past closing odds since 2012) make Villarreal about 0.49 goals a game stronger than Getafe before home field.
  6. Home field: playing at home is worth about 0.27 goals a game in the La Liga, by our ratings of every match since 2012.
  7. Expected goals: Villarreal average 2.1 goals in the simulations, Getafe 0.8.

Disadvantages Why Villarreal may not

  1. The draw: 20% of simulated matches ended level. In soccer a draw is a loss for anyone backing Villarreal to win; about one match in four ends that way.
  2. Fine margins: 53% of simulated matches were level or decided by one goal, so one chance, a deflection or a red card can turn it.
  3. Lineups: clubs name their starting eleven about an hour before kickoff, after our numbers were run, so who is rested or rotated in a busy week isn't in them.
  4. Upset odds: Getafe won 13% of simulated matches. A 65% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.

🥭 Mango Sliced Facts

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AI answers can be wrong; the numbers above rule. Not betting advice.

Side by side

GET GetafeVIL Villarreal
La LigaLeagueLa Liga
13th, 12 ptsTable9th, 12 pts
0.73Goals for / game1.36
1.45Goals against / game1.36
2.7Shots on target / game5.8
4.7On target against / game3.5
18%Clean sheets9%
3-3-0Home W-D-L1-1-3
0-0-5Away W-D-L2-2-2
D-D-L-L-WLast fiveD-L-W-L-L

This season in each club's own league (ESPN's results and shots). Last five: every competition.

Last 5 meetings

  • Feb 14, 2026 · La Liga Getafe 2-1 Villarreal
  • Dec 6, 2025 · La Liga Villarreal 2-0 Getafe
  • Mar 30, 2025 · La Liga Getafe 1-2 Villarreal
  • Oct 20, 2024 · La Liga Villarreal 1-1 Getafe
  • Feb 16, 2024 · La Liga Villarreal 1-1 Getafe

How we get these numbers: How it works · This matchup on any day

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