Real Madrid 9-0-2 · 27 pts · 3rd La Liga · Form WWWWW
Valencia 2-3-6 · 9 pts · 19th La Liga · Form LDDLW
Game day
KickoffDraw 16% · Valencia 12%
The line
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| VAL win | +700 | 12% · +743 |
| Draw | +500 | 16% · +532 |
| RMA win | -320 | 72% · -261 |
| VAL or draw | – | 28% |
| RMA or draw | – | 88% |
| Handicap | VAL +1.5 (-110) | VAL 47% |
| Total 3.5 | O +105 · U -135 | Over 57% |
Line: , DraftKings. Odds move; check a book before acting. The chances shown are the market's (our own ratings didn't beat it in the backtest). Every bet here is settled on the score after 90 minutes plus stoppage time.
10,000 simulated matches
- Expected goals
- VAL 1.2, RMA 2.9
- Likeliest scores (VAL first)
- 1-2 (9%), 1-3 (8%), 0-2 (8%)
- Both teams score
- 64%
- Clean sheet
- VAL 6% · RMA 32%
Advantages Why Real Madrid can win
- Goal difference: Real Madrid are +1.64 a game this season (2.55 scored, 0.91 conceded); Valencia -0.82.
- Scoring: Real Madrid score 2.55 goals a game, Valencia 0.73.
- Form: Real Madrid took 15 points from their last five (W-W-W-W-W), Valencia 5 (L-D-D-L-W).
- Shots on target: Real Madrid out-shoot opponents by +2.7 on target a game, Valencia by -1.8. Shots are a steadier guide than goals over a few weeks.
- Ratings: our goal ratings (results, shots and past closing odds since 2012) make Real Madrid about 1.19 goals a game stronger than Valencia before home field.
- Home and away: Valencia are 0-2-4 at home, Real Madrid 4-0-2 on the road (wins-draws-losses).
- The table: Real Madrid sit 3rd with 27 points from 11 games, Valencia 19th with 9.
Disadvantages Why Real Madrid may not
- The draw: 16% of simulated matches ended level. In soccer a draw is a loss for anyone backing Real Madrid to win; about one match in four ends that way.
- Home field: playing at home is worth about 0.27 goals a game in the La Liga, by our ratings of every match since 2012.
- Fine margins: 43% of simulated matches were level or decided by one goal, so one chance, a deflection or a red card can turn it.
- Lineups: clubs name their starting eleven about an hour before kickoff, after our numbers were run, so who is rested or rotated in a busy week isn't in them.
- Upset odds: Valencia won 12% of simulated matches. A 72% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
🥭 Mango Sliced Facts
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Side by side
| RMA Real Madrid | VAL Valencia | |
|---|---|---|
| La Liga | League | La Liga |
| 3rd, 27 pts | Table | 19th, 9 pts |
| 2.55 | Goals for / game | 0.73 |
| 0.91 | Goals against / game | 1.55 |
| 7.0 | Shots on target / game | 2.9 |
| 4.3 | On target against / game | 4.7 |
| 27% | Clean sheets | 36% |
| 5-0-0 | Home W-D-L | 0-2-4 |
| 4-0-2 | Away W-D-L | 2-1-2 |
| W-W-W-W-W | Last five | L-D-D-L-W |
This season in each club's own league (ESPN's results and shots). Last five: every competition.
Last 5 meetings
- Feb 8, 2026 · La Liga Valencia 0-2 Real Madrid
- Nov 1, 2025 · La Liga Real Madrid 4-0 Valencia
- Apr 5, 2025 · La Liga Real Madrid 1-2 Valencia
- Jan 3, 2025 · La Liga Valencia 1-2 Real Madrid
- Mar 2, 2024 · La Liga Valencia 2-2 Real Madrid
Your pick
Locks at kickoff · Challenge a friend · All picks · Leaderboard
How we get these numbers: How it works · This matchup on any day
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