Alavés 3-3-5 · 12 pts · 11th La Liga · Form DLLDL
Sevilla 5-2-4 · 17 pts · 6th La Liga · Form LDLWL
Game day
KickoffDraw 28% · Alavés 23%
The line
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| SEV win | -105 | 49% · +104 |
| Draw | +245 | 28% · +261 |
| ALA win | +310 | 23% · +329 |
| SEV or draw | – | 77% |
| ALA or draw | – | 51% |
| Handicap | SEV -0.5 (-115) | SEV 49% |
| Total 2.5 | O +115 · U -145 | Over 46% |
Line: , DraftKings. Odds move; check a book before acting. The chances shown are the market's (our own ratings didn't beat it in the backtest). Every bet here is settled on the score after 90 minutes plus stoppage time.
10,000 simulated matches
- Expected goals
- SEV 1.5, ALA 1.0
- Likeliest scores (SEV first)
- 1-1 (13%), 1-0 (11%), 2-0 (10%)
- Both teams score
- 49%
- Clean sheet
- SEV 38% · ALA 22%
Advantages Why Sevilla can win
- Home and away: Sevilla are 3-0-2 at home, Alavés 0-2-3 on the road (wins-draws-losses).
- The table: Sevilla sit 6th with 17 points from 11 games, Alavés 11th with 12.
- Home field: playing at home is worth about 0.27 goals a game in the La Liga, by our ratings of every match since 2012.
- Expected goals: Sevilla average 1.5 goals in the simulations, Alavés 1.0.
- Clean sheet: Sevilla kept Alavés scoreless in 38% of simulated matches.
- The betting market agrees: Sevilla 49%, draw 28%, Alavés 23% on DraftKings's odds.
- Simulation: Sevilla won 49% of 10,000 simulated matches.
Disadvantages Why Sevilla may not
- The draw: 27% of simulated matches ended level. In soccer a draw is a loss for anyone backing Sevilla to win; about one match in four ends that way.
- Fine margins: 66% of simulated matches were level or decided by one goal, so one chance, a deflection or a red card can turn it.
- Lineups: clubs name their starting eleven about an hour before kickoff, after our numbers were run, so who is rested or rotated in a busy week isn't in them.
- Upset odds: Alavés won 24% of simulated matches. A 49% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
🥭 Mango Sliced Facts
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Side by side
| ALA Alavés | SEV Sevilla | |
|---|---|---|
| La Liga | League | La Liga |
| 11th, 12 pts | Table | 6th, 17 pts |
| 1.36 | Goals for / game | 1.55 |
| 1.55 | Goals against / game | 1.73 |
| 4.5 | Shots on target / game | 4.5 |
| 4.5 | On target against / game | 4.7 |
| 27% | Clean sheets | 27% |
| 3-1-2 | Home W-D-L | 3-0-2 |
| 0-2-3 | Away W-D-L | 2-2-2 |
| D-L-L-D-L | Last five | L-D-L-W-L |
This season in each club's own league (ESPN's results and shots). Last five: every competition.
Last 5 meetings
- Feb 14, 2026 · La Liga Sevilla 1-1 Alavés
- Sep 20, 2025 · La Liga Alavés 1-2 Sevilla
- Apr 20, 2025 · La Liga Sevilla 1-1 Alavés
- Sep 20, 2024 · La Liga Alavés 2-1 Sevilla
- Jan 12, 2024 · La Liga Sevilla 2-3 Alavés
Your pick
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How we get these numbers: How it works · This matchup on any day
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