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RAY

Rayo @ Real Sociedad

La Liga · · Reale Arena

RSO

Rayo 3-3-4 · 12 pts · 12th La Liga · Form WDDLW
Real Sociedad 6-1-4 · 19 pts · 5th La Liga · Form DWWWL

Game day

Kickoff

Lineups

Our pick
RSOReal Sociedad
57% to win

Draw 23% · Rayo 20%

ModelRAY 20%RSO 57%
MarketRAY 20%RSO 57%

Same as the market. Not a promise: a 57% pick still loses about 4 times in 10. In soccer a draw counts as a loss for a win pick.

The line

MarketAZMango
RSO win-15057% · -130
Draw+31023% · +335
RAY win+36020% · +388
RSO or draw–80%
RAY or draw–43%
HandicapRSO -0.5 (-170)RSO 57%
Total 3.5O +135 · U -180Over 39%

Line: , DraftKings. Odds move; check a book before acting. The chances shown are the market's (our own ratings didn't beat it in the backtest). Every bet here is settled on the score after 90 minutes plus stoppage time.

10,000 simulated matches

Expected goals
RSO 2.0, RAY 1.2
Likeliest scores (RSO first)
1-1 (11%), 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (9%)
Both teams score
60%
Clean sheet
RSO 31% · RAY 13%
Live oddsBetMGM DraftKings FanDuel Unpaid links. We take no bets.

Advantages Why Real Sociedad can win

  1. Home and away: Real Sociedad are 3-1-1 at home, Rayo 0-2-3 on the road (wins-draws-losses).
  2. Goal difference: Real Sociedad are +0.00 a game this season (1.82 scored, 1.82 conceded); Rayo -0.50.
  3. The table: Real Sociedad sit 5th with 19 points from 11 games, Rayo 12th with 12.
  4. Scoring: Real Sociedad score 1.82 goals a game, Rayo 1.50.
  5. Home field: playing at home is worth about 0.27 goals a game in the La Liga, by our ratings of every match since 2012.
  6. Ratings: our goal ratings (results, shots and past closing odds since 2012) make Real Sociedad about 0.21 goals a game stronger than Rayo before home field.
  7. Expected goals: Real Sociedad average 2.0 goals in the simulations, Rayo 1.2.

Disadvantages Why Real Sociedad may not

  1. The draw: 22% of simulated matches ended level. In soccer a draw is a loss for anyone backing Real Sociedad to win; about one match in four ends that way.
  2. Fine margins: 58% of simulated matches were level or decided by one goal, so one chance, a deflection or a red card can turn it.
  3. Lineups: clubs name their starting eleven about an hour before kickoff, after our numbers were run, so who is rested or rotated in a busy week isn't in them.
  4. Upset odds: Rayo won 21% of simulated matches. A 57% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.

🥭 Mango Sliced Facts

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AI answers can be wrong; the numbers above rule. Not betting advice.

Side by side

RAY RayoRSO Real Sociedad
La LigaLeagueLa Liga
12th, 12 ptsTable5th, 19 pts
1.50Goals for / game1.82
2.00Goals against / game1.82
5.0Shots on target / game5.2
5.2On target against / game5.5
10%Clean sheets9%
3-1-1Home W-D-L3-1-1
0-2-3Away W-D-L3-0-3
W-D-D-L-WLast fiveD-W-W-W-L

This season in each club's own league (ESPN's results and shots). Last five: every competition.

Last 5 meetings

  • Apr 26, 2026 · La Liga Rayo 3-3 Real Sociedad
  • Oct 5, 2025 · La Liga Real Sociedad 0-1 Rayo
  • Mar 16, 2025 · La Liga Rayo 2-2 Real Sociedad
  • Aug 18, 2024 · La Liga Real Sociedad 1-2 Rayo
  • Jan 27, 2024 · La Liga Real Sociedad 0-0 Rayo

How we get these numbers: How it works · This matchup on any day

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