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ATH

Athletic @ Osasuna

La Liga · · El Sadar

OSA

Athletic 4-3-3 · 15 pts · 7th La Liga · Form DDLWW
Osasuna 3-2-6 · 11 pts · 15th La Liga · Form DLWLL

Game day

Kickoff

Lineups

Our pick
ATHAthletic Club
46% to win

Draw 28% · Osasuna 26%

ModelATH 46%OSA 26%
MarketATH 46%OSA 26%

Same as the market. Not a promise: a 46% pick still loses about 5 times in 10. In soccer a draw counts as a loss for a win pick.

The line

MarketAZMango
OSA win+26026% · +281
Draw+24028% · +260
ATH win+10546% · +117
OSA or draw–54%
ATH or draw–74%
HandicapOSA +0.5 (-140)OSA 54%
Total 2.5O +110 · U -140Over 48%

Line: , DraftKings. Odds move; check a book before acting. The chances shown are the market's (our own ratings didn't beat it in the backtest). Every bet here is settled on the score after 90 minutes plus stoppage time.

10,000 simulated matches

Expected goals
OSA 1.1, ATH 1.5
Likeliest scores (OSA first)
1-1 (13%), 0-1 (10%), 1-2 (9%)
Both teams score
52%
Clean sheet
OSA 22% · ATH 34%
Live oddsBetMGM DraftKings FanDuel Unpaid links. We take no bets.

Advantages Why Athletic can win

  1. Goal difference: Athletic are +0.40 a game this season (1.40 scored, 1.00 conceded); Osasuna -1.00.
  2. Defense: Athletic concede 1.00 a game, Osasuna 2.00.
  3. Form: Athletic took 8 points from their last five (D-D-L-W-W), Osasuna 4 (D-L-W-L-L).
  4. Clean sheets: Athletic kept one in 50% of games, Osasuna in 27%.
  5. The table: Athletic sit 7th with 15 points from 10 games, Osasuna 15th with 11.
  6. Ratings: our goal ratings (results, shots and past closing odds since 2012) make Athletic about 0.50 goals a game stronger than Osasuna before home field.
  7. Scoring: Athletic score 1.40 goals a game, Osasuna 1.00.

Disadvantages Why Athletic may not

  1. The draw: 28% of simulated matches ended level. In soccer a draw is a loss for anyone backing Athletic to win; about one match in four ends that way.
  2. Home and away: Osasuna are 2-2-1 at home, Athletic 1-1-2 on the road (wins-draws-losses).
  3. Home field: playing at home is worth about 0.27 goals a game in the La Liga, by our ratings of every match since 2012.
  4. Fine margins: 66% of simulated matches were level or decided by one goal, so one chance, a deflection or a red card can turn it.
  5. Lineups: clubs name their starting eleven about an hour before kickoff, after our numbers were run, so who is rested or rotated in a busy week isn't in them.
  6. Upset odds: Osasuna won 26% of simulated matches. A 46% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.

🥭 Mango Sliced Facts

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AI answers can be wrong; the numbers above rule. Not betting advice.

Side by side

ATH AthleticOSA Osasuna
La LigaLeagueLa Liga
7th, 15 ptsTable15th, 11 pts
1.40Goals for / game1.00
1.00Goals against / game2.00
4.1Shots on target / game3.9
3.8On target against / game4.5
50%Clean sheets27%
3-2-1Home W-D-L2-2-1
1-1-2Away W-D-L1-0-5
D-D-L-W-WLast fiveD-L-W-L-L

This season in each club's own league (ESPN's results and shots). Last five: every competition.

Last 5 meetings

  • Apr 21, 2026 · La Liga Athletic 1-0 Osasuna
  • Jan 3, 2026 · La Liga Osasuna 1-1 Athletic
  • Mar 30, 2025 · La Liga Athletic 0-0 Osasuna
  • Dec 21, 2024 · La Liga Osasuna 1-2 Athletic
  • May 11, 2024 · La Liga Athletic 2-2 Osasuna

How we get these numbers: How it works · This matchup on any day

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