Racing 3-2-6 · 11 pts · 16th La Liga · Form LDLWL
Málaga 0-5-6 · 5 pts · 20th La Liga · Form LDLDL
Game day
KickoffDraw 27% · Racing 34%
The line
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| MCF win | +140 | 39% · +154 |
| Draw | +250 | 27% · +271 |
| RAC win | +180 | 34% · +197 |
| MCF or draw | – | 66% |
| RAC or draw | – | 61% |
| Handicap | MCF -0.5 (+125) | MCF 39% |
| Total 2.5 | O -155 · U +120 | Over 54% |
Line: , DraftKings. Odds move; check a book before acting. The chances shown are the market's (our own ratings didn't beat it in the backtest). Every bet here is settled on the score after 90 minutes plus stoppage time.
10,000 simulated matches
- Expected goals
- MCF 1.5, RAC 1.4
- Likeliest scores (MCF first)
- 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%)
- Both teams score
- 57%
- Clean sheet
- MCF 26% · RAC 24%
Advantages Why Málaga can win
- Defense: Málaga concede 1.91 a game, Racing 2.64.
- Home and away: Málaga are 0-3-2 at home, Racing 0-0-5 on the road (wins-draws-losses).
- Home field: playing at home is worth about 0.27 goals a game in the La Liga, by our ratings of every match since 2012.
- Expected goals: Málaga average 1.5 goals in the simulations, Racing 1.4.
- Clean sheet: Málaga kept Racing scoreless in 26% of simulated matches.
- The betting market agrees: Málaga 39%, draw 27%, Racing 34% on DraftKings's odds.
- Simulation: Málaga won 39% of 10,000 simulated matches.
Disadvantages Why Málaga may not
- Scoring: Racing score 1.36 goals a game, Málaga 0.73.
- The draw: 27% of simulated matches ended level. In soccer a draw is a loss for anyone backing Málaga to win; about one match in four ends that way.
- Shots on target: Racing out-shoot opponents by -1.6 on target a game, Málaga by -2.6. Shots are a steadier guide than goals over a few weeks.
- Ratings: our goal ratings (results, shots and past closing odds since 2012) make Racing about 0.18 goals a game stronger than Málaga before home field.
- Fine margins: 65% of simulated matches were level or decided by one goal, so one chance, a deflection or a red card can turn it.
- Lineups: clubs name their starting eleven about an hour before kickoff, after our numbers were run, so who is rested or rotated in a busy week isn't in them.
- Upset odds: Racing won 34% of simulated matches. A 39% pick still loses about 6 times in 10.
🥭 Mango Sliced Facts
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Side by side
| RAC Racing | MCF Málaga | |
|---|---|---|
| La Liga | League | La Liga |
| 16th, 11 pts | Table | 20th, 5 pts |
| 1.36 | Goals for / game | 0.73 |
| 2.64 | Goals against / game | 1.91 |
| 4.5 | Shots on target / game | 3.1 |
| 6.2 | On target against / game | 5.7 |
| 0% | Clean sheets | 9% |
| 3-2-1 | Home W-D-L | 0-3-2 |
| 0-0-5 | Away W-D-L | 0-2-4 |
| L-D-L-W-L | Last five | L-D-L-D-L |
This season in each club's own league (ESPN's results and shots). Last five: every competition.
Last 5 meetings
These clubs haven't met in the matches we have (league games since 2012, European games since 2019).
Your pick
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How we get these numbers: How it works · This matchup on any day
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