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DEP

Deportivo @ Espanyol

La Liga · · RCDE Stadium

ESP

Deportivo 3-5-3 · 14 pts · 8th La Liga · Form DLDLW
Espanyol 3-2-6 · 11 pts · 14th La Liga · Form LDLLW

Game day

Kickoff

Lineups

Our pick
ESPEspanyol
41% to win

Draw 29% · Deportivo 30%

ModelDEP 30%ESP 41%
MarketDEP 30%ESP 41%

Same as the market. Not a promise: a 41% pick still loses about 6 times in 10. In soccer a draw counts as a loss for a win pick.

The line

MarketAZMango
ESP win+13041% · +144
Draw+23029% · +250
DEP win+21030% · +229
ESP or draw–70%
DEP or draw–59%
HandicapESP -0.5 (+115)ESP 41%
Total 2.5O EVEN · U -130Over 46%

Line: , DraftKings. Odds move; check a book before acting. The chances shown are the market's (our own ratings didn't beat it in the backtest). Every bet here is settled on the score after 90 minutes plus stoppage time.

10,000 simulated matches

Expected goals
ESP 1.4, DEP 1.1
Likeliest scores (ESP first)
1-1 (14%), 1-0 (10%), 0-0 (9%)
Both teams score
52%
Clean sheet
ESP 32% · DEP 25%
Live oddsBetMGM DraftKings FanDuel Unpaid links. We take no bets.

Advantages Why Espanyol can win

  1. Clean sheets: Espanyol kept one in 27% of games, Deportivo in 0%.
  2. Home field: playing at home is worth about 0.27 goals a game in the La Liga, by our ratings of every match since 2012.
  3. Expected goals: Espanyol average 1.4 goals in the simulations, Deportivo 1.1.
  4. Clean sheet: Espanyol kept Deportivo scoreless in 32% of simulated matches.
  5. The betting market agrees: Espanyol 41%, draw 29%, Deportivo 30% on DraftKings's odds.
  6. Simulation: Espanyol won 41% of 10,000 simulated matches.

Disadvantages Why Espanyol may not

  1. Shots on target: Deportivo out-shoot opponents by +0.5 on target a game, Espanyol by -2.0. Shots are a steadier guide than goals over a few weeks.
  2. The draw: 29% of simulated matches ended level. In soccer a draw is a loss for anyone backing Espanyol to win; about one match in four ends that way.
  3. The table: Deportivo sit 8th with 14 points from 11 games, Espanyol 14th with 11.
  4. Fine margins: 68% of simulated matches were level or decided by one goal, so one chance, a deflection or a red card can turn it.
  5. Lineups: clubs name their starting eleven about an hour before kickoff, after our numbers were run, so who is rested or rotated in a busy week isn't in them.
  6. Upset odds: Deportivo won 30% of simulated matches. A 41% pick still loses about 6 times in 10.

🥭 Mango Sliced Facts

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AI answers can be wrong; the numbers above rule. Not betting advice.

Side by side

DEP DeportivoESP Espanyol
La LigaLeagueLa Liga
8th, 14 ptsTable14th, 11 pts
1.36Goals for / game1.18
1.27Goals against / game1.27
4.6Shots on target / game3.4
4.1On target against / game5.4
0%Clean sheets27%
2-3-1Home W-D-L1-1-3
1-2-2Away W-D-L2-1-3
D-L-D-L-WLast fiveL-D-L-L-W

This season in each club's own league (ESPN's results and shots). Last five: every competition.

Last 5 meetings

  • Feb 23, 2018 · La Liga Deportivo 0-0 Espanyol
  • Sep 24, 2017 · La Liga Espanyol 4-1 Deportivo
  • May 7, 2017 · La Liga Deportivo 1-2 Espanyol
  • Jan 6, 2017 · La Liga Espanyol 1-1 Deportivo
  • Feb 20, 2016 · La Liga Espanyol 1-0 Deportivo

How we get these numbers: How it works · This matchup on any day

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