Betis 7-2-2 · 23 pts · 4th La Liga · Form WLWDW
Elche 2-4-5 · 10 pts · 17th La Liga · Form WDDWL
Game day
KickoffDraw 25% · Elche 30%
The line
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| ELC win | +220 | 30% · +238 |
| Draw | +275 | 25% · +296 |
| BET win | +110 | 45% · +122 |
| ELC or draw | – | 55% |
| BET or draw | – | 70% |
| Handicap | ELC +0.5 (-145) | ELC 55% |
| Total 2.5 | O -155 · U +120 | Over 60% |
Line: , DraftKings. Odds move; check a book before acting. The chances shown are the market's (our own ratings didn't beat it in the backtest). Every bet here is settled on the score after 90 minutes plus stoppage time.
10,000 simulated matches
- Expected goals
- ELC 1.4, BET 1.7
- Likeliest scores (ELC first)
- 1-1 (12%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (7%)
- Both teams score
- 62%
- Clean sheet
- ELC 18% · BET 25%
Advantages Why Betis can win
- Goal difference: Betis are +0.27 a game this season (1.64 scored, 1.36 conceded); Elche -0.36.
- Home and away: Elche are 0-1-4 at home, Betis 2-2-1 on the road (wins-draws-losses).
- The table: Betis sit 4th with 23 points from 11 games, Elche 17th with 10.
- Ratings: our goal ratings (results, shots and past closing odds since 2012) make Betis about 0.53 goals a game stronger than Elche before home field.
- Scoring: Betis score 1.64 goals a game, Elche 1.27.
- Clean sheets: Betis kept one in 45% of games, Elche in 27%.
- Defense: Betis concede 1.36 a game, Elche 1.64.
Disadvantages Why Betis may not
- The draw: 25% of simulated matches ended level. In soccer a draw is a loss for anyone backing Betis to win; about one match in four ends that way.
- Home field: playing at home is worth about 0.27 goals a game in the La Liga, by our ratings of every match since 2012.
- Fine margins: 62% of simulated matches were level or decided by one goal, so one chance, a deflection or a red card can turn it.
- Lineups: clubs name their starting eleven about an hour before kickoff, after our numbers were run, so who is rested or rotated in a busy week isn't in them.
- Upset odds: Elche won 30% of simulated matches. A 45% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
🥭 Mango Sliced Facts
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Side by side
| BET Betis | ELC Elche | |
|---|---|---|
| La Liga | League | La Liga |
| 4th, 23 pts | Table | 17th, 10 pts |
| 1.64 | Goals for / game | 1.27 |
| 1.36 | Goals against / game | 1.64 |
| 5.9 | Shots on target / game | 4.5 |
| 5.8 | On target against / game | 4.4 |
| 45% | Clean sheets | 27% |
| 5-0-1 | Home W-D-L | 0-1-4 |
| 2-2-1 | Away W-D-L | 2-3-1 |
| W-L-W-D-W | Last five | W-D-D-W-L |
This season in each club's own league (ESPN's results and shots). Last five: every competition.
Last 5 meetings
- May 12, 2026 · La Liga Betis 2-1 Elche
- Aug 18, 2025 · La Liga Elche 1-1 Betis
- Feb 24, 2023 · La Liga Elche 2-3 Betis
- Aug 15, 2022 · La Liga Betis 3-0 Elche
- Apr 19, 2022 · La Liga Betis 0-1 Elche
Your pick
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How we get these numbers: How it works · This matchup on any day
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