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Nuno Borges vs Ignacio Buse

ATP 1000 · Rolex Paris Masters
Round 3 · Hard · Best of 3 · · Court 1, Paris, France

IB
Our pick
NBNuno Borges
62% to win
ModelBorges 62%Buse 38%

No betting line yet, so no market chance to compare.

Not a promise: a 62% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.

How it plays out

61%straight sets
39%goes to a third set
24.1games on average (17 to 33, 8 times in 10)

Set score (best of 3)

NB 2-040%
NB 2-122%
IB 2-117%
IB 2-021%

Fair game spread: Borges by about 2.5 games; fair total 22.5 games. From an exact model of tennis scoring (points, games, tiebreaks, sets) fed the win chance above, fitted to the real game counts of recent ATP matches on hard, with room for the day's form, so blowouts and long matches show up about as often as they really do.

The line

MarketAZMango
Moneylinen/aBorges -160
Buse +160 fair
Game spreadn/aBorges -2.5 fair
Total gamesn/a22.5 fair

No line on this page yet. Sportsbooks price most tour matches once the order of play is out; we take a snapshot of tennis lines only when our shared odds budget allows. Game spread: "-3.5" wins if that player takes at least 4 more games than the other over the whole match. Total games counts every game, a tiebreak as one. If a player retires, most books settle the moneyline once a set is complete but void the spread and total; rules differ, so read your book's.

Live oddsBetMGM DraftKings FanDuel Unpaid links. We take no bets.

Advantages Why Nuno Borges can win

  1. More matches on hard: 125 to Buse's 25
  2. Higher rating for this match: 1745 to Buse's 1699 (every tour result since 2010, weighted by who it came against, with hard counting extra)
  3. Better on hard: a hard-court rating of 1723 to Buse's 1661
  4. Simulation: Borges wins in straight sets 40% of the time

Disadvantages Why Nuno Borges may not

  1. One break of serve can decide a set, and a tiebreak is close to a coin flip
  2. Injuries and retirements: about one tour match in 35 ends with a player quitting mid-match, and how a bet settles then depends on the sportsbook's rules
  3. Conditions: wind, heat, altitude, a new ball or a night session can change how a match plays
  4. Ratings lag: a player coming back from injury or on a sudden run is rated on older results
  5. Upset odds: Buse wins about 1 time in 3, and takes at least a set 60% of the time

🥭 Mango Sliced Facts

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AI answers can be wrong; the numbers above rule. Not betting advice.

Side by side

NB BorgesIB Buse
–Seed–
PORFromPER
1745Rating for this match1699
1768Rating, all surfaces1737
1723Rating, hard courts only1661
6-4Last 10 matches6-4
216Tour-level matches since 201070
125Matches on hard25
todayLast match1 day ago
7Matches in the last 2 weeks3

Rating: an Elo rating from every tour-level singles result since 2010 (a win over a strong player counts more; a newcomer starts at 1400). The rating for this match blends the all-surface rating with the hard-court one, half and half.

Head to head

No tour-level meeting since 2010.

Last 5 matches

NB Nuno Borges

  • WKaren Khachanov6-3 6-4Rolex Paris Masters · R2
  • WMoise Kouame6-3 6-1Rolex Paris Masters · R1
  • LAlex Molcan7-6(5) 6-2Rolex Paris Masters · QF (qualifying)
  • WAdrian Mannarino4-6 6-1 7-5Rolex Paris Masters · Q1
  • LJan-Lennard Struff6-2 6-3Swiss Indoors Basel · QF

IB Ignacio Buse

  • WDaniil Medvedev6-4 6-4Rolex Paris Masters · R2
  • WZizou Bergs6-2 6-4Rolex Paris Masters · R1
  • LAdrian Mannarino0-6 7-5 6-4Erste Bank Open · R1
  • LZizou Bergs6-0 6-3Rolex Shanghai Masters · R2
  • LQuentin Halys6-1 7-6(3)China Open · R1

Player news

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Each headline links to the full story. Injuries, lineups, suspensions and coaching news come first. We leave out rumors, gossip about players' private lives and betting promos.

What changed

Nothing since our first call ().

How we get these numbers: our own ratings from every tour-level singles match since 2010, by surface, with rest, recent workload and head to head; the betting market's chance where we have a line. See how it holds up · This matchup on its own

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