21+ only. Information and entertainment, not betting advice. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-NEXT-STEP (Arizona) or 1-800-GAMBLER.

AZMango Tip jar
Invite
JS

Jan-Lennard Struff vs Casper Ruud

ATP 1000 · Rolex Paris Masters
Round 3 · Hard · Best of 3 · · Court 1, Paris, France

CR
Our pick
JSJan-Lennard Struff
51% to win
ModelStruff 51%Ruud 49%

No betting line yet, so no market chance to compare.

Not a promise: a 51% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.

How it plays out

60%straight sets
40%goes to a third set
24.3games on average (17 to 33, 8 times in 10)

Set score (best of 3)

JS 2-030%
JS 2-120%
CR 2-120%
CR 2-029%

Fair game spread: Struff by about 0.5 games; fair total 22.5 games. From an exact model of tennis scoring (points, games, tiebreaks, sets) fed the win chance above, fitted to the real game counts of recent ATP matches on hard, with room for the day's form, so blowouts and long matches show up about as often as they really do.

The line

MarketAZMango
Moneylinen/aStruff -103
Ruud +103 fair
Game spreadn/aStruff -0.5 fair
Total gamesn/a22.5 fair

No line on this page yet. Sportsbooks price most tour matches once the order of play is out; we take a snapshot of tennis lines only when our shared odds budget allows. Game spread: "-3.5" wins if that player takes at least 4 more games than the other over the whole match. Total games counts every game, a tiebreak as one. If a player retires, most books settle the moneyline once a set is complete but void the spread and total; rules differ, so read your book's.

Live oddsBetMGM DraftKings FanDuel Unpaid links. We take no bets.

Advantages Why Jan-Lennard Struff can win

  1. Head to head: leads 3-1 in tour-level meetings since 2010
  2. More matches on hard: 307 to Ruud's 212
  3. Simulation: Struff wins in straight sets 30% of the time

Disadvantages Why Jan-Lennard Struff may not

  1. Ruud · Stronger overall record: an all-surface rating of 1864 to Struff's 1776
  2. Ruud · Fresher legs: 36 games played in the last three days to Struff's 57
  3. Ruud · Better on hard: a hard-court rating of 1759 to Struff's 1700
  4. One break of serve can decide a set, and a tiebreak is close to a coin flip
  5. Injuries and retirements: about one tour match in 35 ends with a player quitting mid-match, and how a bet settles then depends on the sportsbook's rules
  6. Conditions: wind, heat, altitude, a new ball or a night session can change how a match plays
  7. Upset odds: Ruud wins about 1 time in 2, and takes at least a set 70% of the time

🥭 Mango Sliced Facts

Ask about this matchup; answers use only this page.

Loading…

AI answers can be wrong; the numbers above rule. Not betting advice.

Side by side

JS StruffCR Ruud
–Seed–
GERFromNOR
1738Rating for this match1812
1776Rating, all surfaces1864
1700Rating, hard courts only1759
8-2Last 10 matches6-4
553Tour-level matches since 2010473
307Matches on hard212
todayLast match1 day ago
10Matches in the last 2 weeks4

Rating: an Elo rating from every tour-level singles result since 2010 (a win over a strong player counts more; a newcomer starts at 1400). The rating for this match blends the all-surface rating with the hard-court one, half and half.

Head to head: Struff 3-1 Ruud

  • CRChina Open · R17-6(5) 6-3Sep 2023
  • JSRolex Monte-Carlo Masters · R36-1 7-6(6)Apr 2023
  • JSUS Open · R16-4 6-4 6-2Aug 2019
  • JSATP Monte-Carlo Rolex Masters · R16-4 6-4Apr 2017

Tour-level singles since 2010, latest first (up to five). Scores read from the winner's side.

Last 5 matches

JS Jan-Lennard Struff

  • WThiago Agustin Tirante6-7(5) 6-3 7-6(3)Rolex Paris Masters · R2
  • WArthur Gea7-6(3) 6-3Rolex Paris Masters · R1
  • LJiri Lehecka3-6 7-5 6-4Swiss Indoors Basel · SF
  • WNuno Borges6-2 6-3Swiss Indoors Basel · QF
  • WNovak Djokovic6-7(4) 7-5 7-6(5)Swiss Indoors Basel · R2

CR Casper Ruud

  • WRafael Jodar6-3 6-4Rolex Paris Masters · R2
  • WJuan Manuel Cerundolo6-3 6-2Rolex Paris Masters · R1
  • LNuno Borges1-6 6-3 6-4Swiss Indoors Basel · R2
  • WDominic Stricker4-6 7-5 6-3Swiss Indoors Basel · R1
  • LRafael Jodar4-6 6-4 6-3Rolex Shanghai Masters · QF

Player news

Loading the latest headlines...

Each headline links to the full story. Injuries, lineups, suspensions and coaching news come first. We leave out rumors, gossip about players' private lives and betting promos.

What changed

Nothing since our first call ().

How we get these numbers: our own ratings from every tour-level singles match since 2010, by surface, with rest, recent workload and head to head; the betting market's chance where we have a line. See how it holds up · This matchup on its own

Game chat

    Sign in or create a free account to chat.

    Be a good sport: no threats, hate, personal details or spam. Open the full chat