Tommy Paul (12) vs Quentin Halys
ATP 1000 · Rolex Paris Masters
Round 3 · Hard · Best of 3 · · Paris, France
How it plays out
Set score (best of 3)
Fair game spread: Paul by about 3.5 games; fair total 22.5 games. From an exact model of tennis scoring (points, games, tiebreaks, sets) fed the win chance above, fitted to the real game counts of recent ATP matches on hard, with room for the day's form, so blowouts and long matches show up about as often as they really do.
The line
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | n/a | Paul -234 Halys +234 fair |
| Game spread | n/a | Paul -3.5 fair |
| Total games | n/a | 22.5 fair |
No line on this page yet. Sportsbooks price most tour matches once the order of play is out; we take a snapshot of tennis lines only when our shared odds budget allows. Game spread: "-3.5" wins if that player takes at least 4 more games than the other over the whole match. Total games counts every game, a tiebreak as one. If a player retires, most books settle the moneyline once a set is complete but void the spread and total; rules differ, so read your book's.
Advantages Why Tommy Paul can win
- Stronger overall record: an all-surface rating of 1911 to Halys's 1759
- Better on hard: a hard-court rating of 1861 to Halys's 1705
- More matches on hard: 294 to Halys's 164
- Fresher legs: 36 games played in the last three days to Halys's 54
- Seeded 12; Halys is unseeded
- Simulation: Paul wins in straight sets 48% of the time
Disadvantages Why Tommy Paul may not
- One break of serve can decide a set, and a tiebreak is close to a coin flip
- Injuries and retirements: about one tour match in 35 ends with a player quitting mid-match, and how a bet settles then depends on the sportsbook's rules
- Conditions: wind, heat, altitude, a new ball or a night session can change how a match plays
- Ratings lag: a player coming back from injury or on a sudden run is rated on older results
- Upset odds: Halys wins about 1 time in 3, and takes at least a set 52% of the time
🥭 Mango Sliced Facts
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Side by side
| TP Paul | QH Halys | |
|---|---|---|
| 12 | Seed | – |
| USA | From | FRA |
| 1886 | Rating for this match | 1732 |
| 1911 | Rating, all surfaces | 1759 |
| 1861 | Rating, hard courts only | 1705 |
| 7-3 | Last 10 matches | 5-5 |
| 425 | Tour-level matches since 2010 | 249 |
| 294 | Matches on hard | 164 |
| today | Last match | today |
| 8 | Matches in the last 2 weeks | 3 |
Rating: an Elo rating from every tour-level singles result since 2010 (a win over a strong player counts more; a newcomer starts at 1400). The rating for this match blends the all-surface rating with the hard-court one, half and half.
Head to head
No tour-level meeting since 2010.
Last 5 matches
TP Tommy Paul
- WDaniel Merida6-1 6-1Rolex Paris Masters · R2
- WHolger Rune7-5 6-4Rolex Paris Masters · R1
- LCarlos Alcaraz6-4 7-6(2)Erste Bank Open · QF
- WLuciano Darderi6-1 6-1Erste Bank Open · R2
- WAndrey Rublev7-5 6-2Erste Bank Open · R1
QH Quentin Halys
- WFrances Tiafoe6-3 1-6 7-6(9)Rolex Paris Masters · R2
- WArthur Fery7-6(6) 7-5Rolex Paris Masters · R1
- LHolger Rune6-4 6-7(2) 7-6(5)Swiss Indoors Basel · R1
- LAlexander Zverev6-4 6-7(8) 6-3Rolex Shanghai Masters · R3
- WAlexander Blockx4-6 7-6(9) 6-4Rolex Shanghai Masters · R2
Player news
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Your pick
Locks at the first serve · Challenge a friend · All picks · Leaderboard
What changed
Nothing since our first call ().
How we get these numbers: our own ratings from every tour-level singles match since 2010, by surface, with rest, recent workload and head to head; the betting market's chance where we have a line. See how it holds up · This matchup on its own
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