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Matteo Berrettini vs Carlos Alcaraz (2)

ATP 1000 · Rolex Paris Masters
Round 3 · Hard · Best of 3 · · Court Central, Paris, France

CA
Our pick
CACarlos Alcaraz
88% to win
ModelBerrettini 12%Alcaraz 88%

No betting line yet, so no market chance to compare.

Not a promise: a 88% pick still loses about 1 time in 10.

How it plays out

75%straight sets
25%goes to a third set
21.9games on average (16 to 31, 8 times in 10)

Set score (best of 3)

MB 2-06%
MB 2-16%
CA 2-118%
CA 2-069%

Fair game spread: Alcaraz by about 4.5 games; fair total 20.5 games. From an exact model of tennis scoring (points, games, tiebreaks, sets) fed the win chance above, fitted to the real game counts of recent ATP matches on hard, with room for the day's form, so blowouts and long matches show up about as often as they really do.

The line

MarketAZMango
Moneylinen/aBerrettini +722
Alcaraz -722 fair
Game spreadn/aBerrettini +4.5 fair
Total gamesn/a20.5 fair

No line on this page yet. Sportsbooks price most tour matches once the order of play is out; we take a snapshot of tennis lines only when our shared odds budget allows. Game spread: "-3.5" wins if that player takes at least 4 more games than the other over the whole match. Total games counts every game, a tiebreak as one. If a player retires, most books settle the moneyline once a set is complete but void the spread and total; rules differ, so read your book's.

Live oddsBetMGM DraftKings FanDuel Unpaid links. We take no bets.

Advantages Why Carlos Alcaraz can win

  1. Stronger overall record: an all-surface rating of 2204 to Berrettini's 1773
  2. Better on hard: a hard-court rating of 2125 to Berrettini's 1726
  3. Fresher legs: 22 games played in the last three days to Berrettini's 57
  4. Head to head: leads 3-2 in tour-level meetings since 2010
  5. More matches on hard: 215 to Berrettini's 180
  6. Seeded 2; Berrettini is unseeded
  7. Simulation: Alcaraz wins in straight sets 69% of the time

Disadvantages Why Carlos Alcaraz may not

  1. One break of serve can decide a set, and a tiebreak is close to a coin flip
  2. Injuries and retirements: about one tour match in 35 ends with a player quitting mid-match, and how a bet settles then depends on the sportsbook's rules
  3. Conditions: wind, heat, altitude, a new ball or a night session can change how a match plays
  4. Ratings lag: a player coming back from injury or on a sudden run is rated on older results
  5. Upset odds: Berrettini wins about 1 time in 8, and takes at least a set 31% of the time

🥭 Mango Sliced Facts

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AI answers can be wrong; the numbers above rule. Not betting advice.

Side by side

MB BerrettiniCA Alcaraz
–Seed2
ITAFromESP
1750Rating for this match2165
1773Rating, all surfaces2204
1726Rating, hard courts only2125
6-4Last 10 matches9-1
347Tour-level matches since 2010383
180Matches on hard215
1 day agoLast matchtoday
5Matches in the last 2 weeks6

Rating: an Elo rating from every tour-level singles result since 2010 (a win over a strong player counts more; a newcomer starts at 1400). The rating for this match blends the all-surface rating with the hard-court one, half and half.

Head to head: Berrettini 2-3 Alcaraz

  • CAWimbledon · R43-6 6-3 6-3 6-3Jul 2023
  • CARio Open presented by Claro · QF6-2 2-6 6-2Feb 2022
  • MBAustralian Open · R36-2 7-6(3) 4-6 2-6 7-6(7)Jan 2022
  • MBAustralian Open · R36-2 7-6(3) 4-6 2-6 7-6(7)Jan 2022
  • CAErste Bank Open · QF6-1 6-7(2) 7-6(5)Oct 2021

Tour-level singles since 2010, latest first (up to five). Scores read from the winner's side.

Last 5 matches

MB Matteo Berrettini

  • WUgo Humbert7-6(3) 7-5Rolex Paris Masters · R2
  • WBrandon Nakashima6-4 3-6 7-6(8)Rolex Paris Masters · R1
  • LAlex de Minaur7-6(4) 6-2Erste Bank Open · QF
  • WFlavio Cobolli5-2 ret.Erste Bank Open · R2
  • WTomas Martin Etcheverry6-3 6-4Erste Bank Open · R1

CA Carlos Alcaraz

  • WAlex Michelsen7-6(4) 6-3Rolex Paris Masters · R2
  • WAlex de Minaur6-1 6-4Erste Bank Open · F
  • WDaniil Medvedev6-4 7-6(2)Erste Bank Open · SF
  • WTommy Paul6-4 7-6(2)Erste Bank Open · QF
  • WNikoloz Basilashvili6-1 7-6(11)Erste Bank Open · R2

Player news

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Each headline links to the full story. Injuries, lineups, suspensions and coaching news come first. We leave out rumors, gossip about players' private lives and betting promos.

What changed

Nothing since our first call ().

How we get these numbers: our own ratings from every tour-level singles match since 2010, by surface, with rest, recent workload and head to head; the betting market's chance where we have a line. See how it holds up · This matchup on its own

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