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AF

Arthur Fils (6) vs Taylor Fritz (11)

ATP 1000 · Rolex Paris Masters
Round 3 · Hard · Best of 3 · · Court Central, Paris, France

TF
Our pick
AFArthur Fils
54% to win
ModelFils 54%Fritz 46%

No betting line yet, so no market chance to compare.

Not a promise: a 54% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.

How it plays out

60%straight sets
40%goes to a third set
24.4games on average (17 to 33, 8 times in 10)

Set score (best of 3)

AF 2-033%
AF 2-121%
TF 2-119%
TF 2-027%

Fair game spread: Fils by about 0.5 games; fair total 22.5 games. From an exact model of tennis scoring (points, games, tiebreaks, sets) fed the win chance above, fitted to the real game counts of recent ATP matches on hard, with room for the day's form, so blowouts and long matches show up about as often as they really do.

The line

MarketAZMango
Moneylinen/aFils -115
Fritz +115 fair
Game spreadn/aFils -0.5 fair
Total gamesn/a22.5 fair

No line on this page yet. Sportsbooks price most tour matches once the order of play is out; we take a snapshot of tennis lines only when our shared odds budget allows. Game spread: "-3.5" wins if that player takes at least 4 more games than the other over the whole match. Total games counts every game, a tiebreak as one. If a player retires, most books settle the moneyline once a set is complete but void the spread and total; rules differ, so read your book's.

Live oddsBetMGM DraftKings FanDuel Unpaid links. We take no bets.

Advantages Why Arthur Fils can win

  1. Fresher legs: 22 games played in the last three days to Fritz's 66
  2. Stronger overall record: an all-surface rating of 1953 to Fritz's 1914
  3. Seeded 6 to Fritz's 11
  4. Simulation: Fils wins in straight sets 33% of the time

Disadvantages Why Arthur Fils may not

  1. Fritz · More matches on hard: 489 to Fils's 129
  2. Fritz · Fils retired from a match in the last month, which often means an injury
  3. One break of serve can decide a set, and a tiebreak is close to a coin flip
  4. Injuries and retirements: about one tour match in 35 ends with a player quitting mid-match, and how a bet settles then depends on the sportsbook's rules
  5. Conditions: wind, heat, altitude, a new ball or a night session can change how a match plays
  6. Ratings lag: a player coming back from injury or on a sudden run is rated on older results
  7. Upset odds: Fritz wins about 1 time in 2, and takes at least a set 67% of the time

🥭 Mango Sliced Facts

Ask about this matchup; answers use only this page.

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AI answers can be wrong; the numbers above rule. Not betting advice.

Side by side

AF FilsTF Fritz
6Seed11
FRAFromUSA
1919Rating for this match1889
1953Rating, all surfaces1914
1884Rating, hard courts only1865
6-4Last 10 matches8-2
205Tour-level matches since 2010715
129Matches on hard489
todayLast match1 day ago
6Matches in the last 2 weeks10

Rating: an Elo rating from every tour-level singles result since 2010 (a win over a strong player counts more; a newcomer starts at 1400). The rating for this match blends the all-surface rating with the hard-court one, half and half.

Head to head: Fils 1-1 Fritz

  • TFSwiss Indoors Basel · QF6-2 2-0 ret.Oct 2026
  • AFKinoshita Group Japan Open Tennis Championships · R16-4 3-6 6-3Sep 2024

Tour-level singles since 2010, latest first (up to five). Scores read from the winner's side.

Last 5 matches

AF Arthur Fils

  • WTomas Machac6-3 7-6(4)Rolex Paris Masters · R2
  • LTaylor Fritz6-2 2-0 ret.Swiss Indoors Basel · QF
  • WAlex Michelsen4-6 6-3 7-6(5)Swiss Indoors Basel · R2
  • WGiovanni Mpetshi Perricard7-6(5) 7-5Swiss Indoors Basel · R1
  • LJan-Lennard Struff6-4 6-7(7) 7-6(5)BNP Paribas Fortis European Open · SF

TF Taylor Fritz

  • WAlex Molcan6-7(6) 7-5 7-6(5)Rolex Paris Masters · R2
  • WBenjamin Bonzi3-6 6-3 6-4Rolex Paris Masters · R1
  • LValentin Vacherot7-6(5) 6-3Swiss Indoors Basel · SF
  • WArthur Fils6-2 2-0 ret.Swiss Indoors Basel · QF
  • WDenis Shapovalov6-4 6-3Swiss Indoors Basel · R2

Player news

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Each headline links to the full story. Injuries, lineups, suspensions and coaching news come first. We leave out rumors, gossip about players' private lives and betting promos.

What changed

Nothing since our first call ().

How we get these numbers: our own ratings from every tour-level singles match since 2010, by surface, with rest, recent workload and head to head; the betting market's chance where we have a line. See how it holds up · This matchup on its own

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