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Mika Stojsavljevic vs Zeynep Sonmez

WTA · Prudential Hong Kong Tennis Open
Round 2 · Hard · Best of 3 · · Centre Court, Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China

ZS
Our pick
ZSZeynep Sonmez
79% to win
ModelStojsavljevic 21%Sonmez 79%

No betting line yet, so no market chance to compare.

Not a promise: a 79% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.

How it plays out

69%straight sets
31%goes to a third set
21.1games on average (15 to 30, 8 times in 10)

Set score (best of 3)

MS 2-011%
MS 2-110%
ZS 2-121%
ZS 2-058%

Fair game spread: Sonmez by about 5.5 games; fair total 19.5 games. From an exact model of tennis scoring (points, games, tiebreaks, sets) fed the win chance above, fitted to the real game counts of recent WTA matches on hard, with room for the day's form, so blowouts and long matches show up about as often as they really do.

The line

MarketAZMango
Moneylinen/aStojsavljevic +367
Sonmez -367 fair
Game spreadn/aStojsavljevic +5.5 fair
Total gamesn/a19.5 fair

No line on this page yet. Sportsbooks price most tour matches once the order of play is out; we take a snapshot of tennis lines only when our shared odds budget allows. Game spread: "-3.5" wins if that player takes at least 4 more games than the other over the whole match. Total games counts every game, a tiebreak as one. If a player retires, most books settle the moneyline once a set is complete but void the spread and total; rules differ, so read your book's.

Live oddsBetMGM DraftKings FanDuel Unpaid links. We take no bets.

Advantages Why Zeynep Sonmez can win

  1. Stronger overall record: an all-surface rating of 1704 to Stojsavljevic's 1449
  2. More matches on hard: 97 to Stojsavljevic's 5
  3. Better on hard: a hard-court rating of 1641 to Stojsavljevic's 1460
  4. Fresher legs: 18 games played in the last three days to Stojsavljevic's 29
  5. Simulation: Sonmez wins in straight sets 58% of the time

Disadvantages Why Zeynep Sonmez may not

  1. One break of serve can decide a set, and a tiebreak is close to a coin flip
  2. Injuries and retirements: about one tour match in 35 ends with a player quitting mid-match, and how a bet settles then depends on the sportsbook's rules
  3. Conditions: wind, heat, altitude, a new ball or a night session can change how a match plays
  4. Ratings lag: a player coming back from injury or on a sudden run is rated on older results
  5. Upset odds: Stojsavljevic wins about 1 time in 5, and takes at least a set 42% of the time

🥭 Mango Sliced Facts

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AI answers can be wrong; the numbers above rule. Not betting advice.

Side by side

MS StojsavljevicZS Sonmez
–Seed–
GBRFromTUR
1454Rating for this match1673
1449Rating, all surfaces1704
1460Rating, hard courts only1641
4-6Last 10 matches5-5
18Tour-level matches since 2010186
5Matches on hard97
1 day agoLast match2 days ago
4Matches in the last 2 weeks4

Rating: an Elo rating from every tour-level singles result since 2010 (a win over a strong player counts more; a newcomer starts at 1400). The rating for this match blends the all-surface rating with the hard-court one, half and half.

Head to head

No tour-level meeting since 2010.

Last 5 matches

MS Mika Stojsavljevic

  • WSofia Kenin6-3 4-6 6-4Prudential Hong Kong Tennis Open · R1
  • LTatiana Prozorova6-4 6-1Prudential Hong Kong Tennis Open · QF (qualifying)
  • WAlevtina Ibragimova1-6 6-2 6-1Prudential Hong Kong Tennis Open · Q1
  • LAlexandra Eala6-1 6-2Toray Pan Pacific Open Tennis · R1
  • LBelinda Bencic6-2 6-1Wimbledon · R1

ZS Zeynep Sonmez

  • WDayana Yastremska6-4 6-2Prudential Hong Kong Tennis Open · R1
  • LJil Teichmann4-6 6-3 6-1Guangzhou Open · R2
  • WSara Sorribes Tormo6-1 4-6 6-2Guangzhou Open · R1
  • LAnn Li6-3 6-1Kinoshita Group Japan Open · R2
  • WMaya Joint3-6 6-4 6-3Kinoshita Group Japan Open · R1

Player news

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Each headline links to the full story. Injuries, lineups, suspensions and coaching news come first. We leave out rumors, gossip about players' private lives and betting promos.

What changed

Nothing since our first call ().

How we get these numbers: our own ratings from every tour-level singles match since 2010, by surface, with rest, recent workload and head to head; the betting market's chance where we have a line. See how it holds up · This matchup on its own

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