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Leolia Jeanjean (1) vs Alice Tubello

WTA · Reto Win Tennis Cali Open
Quarterfinal · Clay · Best of 3 · · Cali, Colombia

AT
Our pick
LJLeolia Jeanjean
54% to win
ModelJeanjean 54%Tubello 46%

No betting line yet, so no market chance to compare.

Not a promise: a 54% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.

How it plays out

68%straight sets
32%goes to a third set
21.8games on average (15 to 31, 8 times in 10)

Set score (best of 3)

LJ 2-037%
LJ 2-117%
AT 2-116%
AT 2-030%

Fair game spread: Jeanjean by about 1.5 games; fair total 20.5 games. From an exact model of tennis scoring (points, games, tiebreaks, sets) fed the win chance above, fitted to the real game counts of recent WTA matches on clay, with room for the day's form, so blowouts and long matches show up about as often as they really do.

The line

MarketAZMango
Moneylinen/aJeanjean -118
Tubello +118 fair
Game spreadn/aJeanjean -1.5 fair
Total gamesn/a20.5 fair

No line on this page yet. Sportsbooks price most tour matches once the order of play is out; we take a snapshot of tennis lines only when our shared odds budget allows. Game spread: "-3.5" wins if that player takes at least 4 more games than the other over the whole match. Total games counts every game, a tiebreak as one. If a player retires, most books settle the moneyline once a set is complete but void the spread and total; rules differ, so read your book's.

Live oddsBetMGM DraftKings FanDuel Unpaid links. We take no bets.

Advantages Why Leolia Jeanjean can win

  1. Head to head: leads 1-0 in tour-level meetings since 2010
  2. More matches on clay: 96 to Tubello's 22
  3. Stronger overall record: an all-surface rating of 1651 to Tubello's 1617
  4. Fresher legs: 49 games played in the last three days to Tubello's 64
  5. Better on clay: a clay-court rating of 1576 to Tubello's 1544
  6. Seeded 1; Tubello is unseeded
  7. Simulation: Jeanjean wins in straight sets 37% of the time

Disadvantages Why Leolia Jeanjean may not

  1. One break of serve can decide a set, and a tiebreak is close to a coin flip
  2. Injuries and retirements: about one tour match in 35 ends with a player quitting mid-match, and how a bet settles then depends on the sportsbook's rules
  3. Conditions: wind, heat, altitude, a new ball or a night session can change how a match plays
  4. Ratings lag: a player coming back from injury or on a sudden run is rated on older results
  5. Upset odds: Tubello wins about 1 time in 2, and takes at least a set 63% of the time

🥭 Mango Sliced Facts

Ask about this matchup; answers use only this page.

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AI answers can be wrong; the numbers above rule. Not betting advice.

Side by side

LJ JeanjeanAT Tubello
1Seed–
FRAFromFRA
1614Rating for this match1580
1651Rating, all surfaces1617
1576Rating, clay courts only1544
7-3Last 10 matches8-2
204Tour-level matches since 201034
96Matches on clay22
todayLast matchtoday
3Matches in the last 2 weeks7

Rating: an Elo rating from every tour-level singles result since 2010 (a win over a strong player counts more; a newcomer starts at 1400). The rating for this match blends the all-surface rating with the clay-court one, half and half.

Head to head: Jeanjean 1-0 Tubello

  • LJGrand Est Open 88 · QF3-6 6-3 6-4Jul 2026

Tour-level singles since 2010, latest first (up to five). Scores read from the winner's side.

Last 5 matches

LJ Leolia Jeanjean

  • WCarolina Alves6-1 6-4Reto Win Tennis Cali Open · R2
  • WLucia Bronzetti6-7(2) 6-4 6-3Reto Win Tennis Cali Open · R1
  • LCarole Monnet6-4 6-1Queretaro Open · R1
  • LMariam Bolkvadze6-3 6-1Samsun Open · R1
  • WLois Boisson7-6(3) 4-6 6-4Adana Open · F

AT Alice Tubello

  • WMarina Bassols Ribera6-1 6-1Reto Win Tennis Cali Open · R2
  • WRebeka Masarova6-3 6-0Reto Win Tennis Cali Open · R1
  • WJulia Grabher3-6 7-6(5) 7-6(2)Curitiba Open · F
  • WNauhany Vitoria Leme Da Silva6-0 6-1Curitiba Open · SF
  • WJazmin Ortenzi2-6 6-2 6-3Curitiba Open · QF

Player news

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Each headline links to the full story. Injuries, lineups, suspensions and coaching news come first. We leave out rumors, gossip about players' private lives and betting promos.

What changed

Nothing since our first call ().

How we get these numbers: our own ratings from every tour-level singles match since 2010, by surface, with rest, recent workload and head to head; the betting market's chance where we have a line. See how it holds up · This matchup on its own

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