Game day
No over/under posted yet · our projected total 154.9
- Starting lineups Teams usually confirm their starters about 30 minutes before tip-off.
- Tip-off
A probability, not a promise. A 57% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why Valkyries can win
- Home court: Valkyries play at home, worth about 2 points in the WNBA.
- Simulation: Valkyries win 2,855 of 5,000 simulated games.
- Strength of schedule: Valkyries 1st (+0.8), Dream 6th (+0.3) of 15.
- Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): Valkyries 1st (14.5), Dream 5th (15.5) of 15.
- Strength: Valkyries rank 1st of 15 in defense, points allowed per 100 possessions (95.1).
- Team matchup: no unit-against-unit mismatch clearly favors Valkyries. The nearest thing to one: their ball pressure (3rd of 15) meets the Dream ball security (5th), close to even, so this is more about execution than one area to exploit. Pace clash: Dream play fast (5th of 15 in pace), Valkyries slow (15th); whoever sets the tempo gets the game they want.
- Star matchup: no key position favors Valkyries, so they need their depth to beat the other side's stars, with Veronica Burton (11.5 pts, 3.8 reb, 5.3 ast, Game Score 10.9; filling in for Janelle Salaun, missed the last 2 games) leading the way.
Disadvantages Why Valkyries may not
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Dream +7.4, Valkyries -7.4.
- Upset odds: Dream win 2,145 of 5,000 simulations (43%). A 57% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Getting to the line (free throws per shot): Dream 3rd (0.27), Valkyries 14th (0.21) of 15.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 0.9 points to Dream in our ratings.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations Valkyries lose by 13 or more.
- Team matchup: a strength Valkyries may not get to use. Their ball pressure (3rd of 15) meets the Dream ball security (5th), one of the better units at stopping it, which can take away their plan to turn steals into easy points in transition.
- Star matchup: Best player against best player, Angel Reese (Dream: 16.5 pts, 11.9 reb, 2.8 ast, Game Score 14.1) has the edge on Veronica Burton (Valkyries: 11.5 pts, 3.8 reb, 5.3 ast, Game Score 10.9; filling in for Janelle Salaun, missed the last 2 games).
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Team news
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Headlines from ESPN and CBS Sports, each linked to the full story. Injuries, lineups, suspensions and coaching news come first. We leave out rumors, gossip about players' private lives and betting promos.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | GS -2.4 |
| Total points | n/a | 154.9 |
| Win chance | ATL n/a · GS n/a | ATL 43% · GS 57% |
| Moneyline | ATL +133 · GS -133 (fair) |
No betting line has been posted for this game yet. Sportsbooks usually post WNBA lines the night before or the morning of the game, after the first injury report. Books also take a line down for a while when a key player's status is unclear. We check ESPN's lines before each day's games and add the line as soon as there is one. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
5,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Valkyries 79, Dream 77.
- 80% of simulations land between Dream by 13 and Valkyries by 18.
Still out?
Our free data has no official WNBA injury feed, so we show what a fan can know before tip-off: regulars who sat out each team's last game. Our model counts them as likely out, exactly as it did in the backtest.
ATL Dream
- Madina Okot (0.6 Game Score a night)
- Sika Kone (0.4 Game Score a night)
GS Valkyries
Every regular played last game.
Check the team's own news before the game; players return and new absences appear at tip-off.
Also checked (who played in recent games, ESPN and CBS Sports news): nothing beyond the report.
Side by side
| ATL | GS | |
|---|---|---|
| 38-17 | Record | 40-16 |
| +8.3 1 | Net rating | +7.2 3 |
| 106.1 6 | Offensive rating | 102.4 8 |
| 97.8 2 | Defensive rating | 95.1 1 |
| +0.3 6 | Strength of schedule | +0.8 1 |
| 49.6% 12 | Effective FG% | 48.7% 13 |
| 51.4% 9 | Opponent eFG% | 47.4% 1 |
| 15.5 5 | Turnovers per 100 | 14.5 1 |
| 28.7% 2 | Offensive rebound % | 26.8% 4 |
| 32.4% 11 | 3-point % | 33.9% 8 |
| 84.3 5 | Pace | 79.2 15 |
Small numbers are ranks among the 15 WNBA teams (1 = best; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions; strength of schedule is the average rating of opponents faced (2025-26 season).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-29 | Postseason | Golden State 69 @ Atlanta 80 | ATL |
| 2026-10-26 | Postseason | Atlanta 55 @ Golden State 64 | GS |
| 2026-10-24 | Postseason | Golden State 67 @ Atlanta 62 | GS |
| 2026-10-21 | Postseason | Golden State 71 @ Atlanta 97 | ATL |
| 2026-10-19 | Postseason | Atlanta 79 @ Golden State 65 | ATL |
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Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 5,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 2,213 WNBA games since 2018. Model version 2. How it works