WNBA track record
Every WNBA prediction is logged before tip-off and graded afterwards. Nothing is deleted. NBA track record · NCAAW
Live picks
The live WNBA record starts with the first graded game. Every pick is logged before tip-off and graded after the final buzzer, wins and losses alike.
Backtest, 2020 onward (1,774 games)
Each game day was predicted using only games played before it. Settings were chosen on 2018 and 2019 and never re-tuned on these games. The lines are the closing lines ESPN stored for each game.
| Winners picked | Log loss | |
|---|---|---|
| Closing betting line | 69.2% | 0.5833 |
| AZMango model | 69.1% | 0.5847 |
| Our power ratings, no line | 68.0% | 0.6062 |
The honest summary: we match the closing betting line; we do not beat it. Our own adjustments (who sat out last game, rest, efficiency) missed the final margin by 0.01 points less than the closing spread over the last 660 lined games, so the guard rail has them switched on. That is far too small to bet on, and the guard rail switches them off the week they stop helping. What we add is the explanation, a number for every one of 210 pairings, and probabilities you can check.
Are the percentages honest?
| We said | Games | Average call | Actually won | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50%-60% | 416 | 56% | 54% | |
| 60%-70% | 630 | 65% | 64% | |
| 70%-80% | 445 | 75% | 79% | |
| 80%-90% | 247 | 85% | 86% | |
| 90%-100% | 36 | 92% | 86% |
Bars: our average call (light) against how often those teams won (dark).