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Chris Kirk vs Denny McCarthy

72-hole matchup · World Wide Technology Championship
El Cardonal at Diamante · first tee

DM
Our pick
DMDenny McCarthy
50.4% to finish ahead
ModelKirk 49.6%McCarthy 50.4%

Why not the higher win %? Kirk wins the tournament more often in our simulations (his good weeks are higher), but McCarthy is steadier, so he finishes ahead of Kirk slightly more often.

This one is close to a coin flip: a lean, not a strong pick.

Sportsbooks post golf matchups too, but there's no free feed of them, so there's no market number to compare here.

Ties left out (a push). Not a promise: a 50% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.

Advantages Why McCarthy can finish ahead

  1. McCarthy and Kirk rate almost level (within 0.1 strokes a round over the last two years); McCarthy gets the nod because he finishes ahead in slightly more of our simulations.
  2. McCarthy is the steadier player (round-to-round spread 2.5 strokes against Kirk's 2.6), so fewer blow-up rounds.

Disadvantages Why McCarthy may not

  1. Kirk is in form: his recent rounds average 0.4 strokes better than his rating.
  2. Head to head: Kirk finished ahead in 4 of their last 5 tournaments together (a fact, not part of our numbers).
  3. Recent results: 3 top-10 finishes in Kirk's last 8 starts, 1 for McCarthy.
  4. Golf is the most random sport we cover: one round of 75 can undo a whole week. At 50%, McCarthy still loses this matchup about 4 times in 10.
  5. About 5% of our simulations end level after 72 holes: a tie, which sportsbooks void (a push) for a two-way matchup.

🥭 Mango Sliced Facts

Ask about this matchup; answers use only this page.

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AI answers can be wrong; the numbers above rule. Not betting advice.

Side by side

CK KirkDM McCarthy
1.7%Win this week1.2%
9%Top 58%
18%Top 1017%
33%Top 2032%
75%Make the cut77%
+0.61Rating (strokes / round)+0.60
+1.00Recent rounds+0.57
2.60Round-to-round spread2.45
1,035Rounds on record944
–At this course (2 / 0 rounds)–

Rating: strokes a round better than an average PGA Tour player, from every round on the PGA Tour, DP World Tour, LIV Golf and Korn Ferry Tour since 2014, each measured against that day's field and recent rounds counting more. Course history is shown for interest only: it didn't improve the backtest, so it doesn't move our numbers.

Last 5 meetings

Tournaments they both played: Kirk finished ahead 4, McCarthy 1. Settled like a matchup bet (72 holes; a missed cut loses).

  • KIRButterfield Bermuda ChampionshipKirk T6 · McCarthy T15Oct 2026
  • KIRBank of Utah ChampionshipKirk T21 · McCarthy MCOct 2026
  • KIRBiltmore Championship AshevilleKirk T10 · McCarthy MCSep 2026
  • MCCWyndham ChampionshipKirk T72 · McCarthy T29Aug 2026
  • KIRRocket ClassicKirk T8 · McCarthy MCJul 2026

Last 6 starts

CK Chris Kirk

  • T6Butterfield Bermuda Championship-13Oct 2026
  • T21Bank of Utah Championship-17Oct 2026
  • T10Biltmore Championship Asheville-19Sep 2026
  • T72Wyndham Championship-2Aug 2026
  • T8Rocket Classic-12Jul 2026
  • T313M Open-12Jul 2026

DM Denny McCarthy

  • T23VidantaWorld Mexico Open-13Oct 2026
  • T15Butterfield Bermuda Championship-11Oct 2026
  • T29Baycurrent Classic-7Oct 2026
  • MCBank of Utah Championship-4Oct 2026
  • MCBiltmore Championship Asheville+2Sep 2026
  • T29Wyndham Championship-8Aug 2026
Live oddsBetMGM DraftKings FanDuel Unpaid links. We take no bets.

How we get these numbers: ratings from every round on four tours since 2014, measured against each day's field, then 20,000 simulations of this tournament (cut included). See how it holds up · These two in the Analyzer

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