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Ben Griffin vs Ryan Gerard

72-hole matchup · World Wide Technology Championship
El Cardonal at Diamante · first tee

RG
Our pick
BGBen Griffin
50.5% to finish ahead
ModelGriffin 50.5%Gerard 49.5%

Why not the higher win %? Gerard wins the tournament more often in our simulations (his good weeks are higher), but Griffin is steadier, so he finishes ahead of Gerard slightly more often.

This one is close to a coin flip: a lean, not a strong pick.

Sportsbooks post golf matchups too, but there's no free feed of them, so there's no market number to compare here.

Ties left out (a push). Not a promise: a 50% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.

Advantages Why Griffin can finish ahead

  1. Griffin and Gerard rate almost level (within 0.1 strokes a round over the last two years); Griffin gets the nod because he finishes ahead in slightly more of our simulations.
  2. Griffin is the steadier player (round-to-round spread 2.5 strokes against Gerard's 2.7), so fewer blow-up rounds.

Disadvantages Why Griffin may not

  1. Gerard is in form: his recent rounds average 0.3 strokes better than his rating.
  2. Head to head: Gerard finished ahead in 4 of their last 5 tournaments together (a fact, not part of our numbers).
  3. Golf is the most random sport we cover: one round of 75 can undo a whole week. At 50%, Griffin still loses this matchup about 4 times in 10.
  4. About 5% of our simulations end level after 72 holes: a tie, which sportsbooks void (a push) for a two-way matchup.

🥭 Mango Sliced Facts

Ask about this matchup; answers use only this page.

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AI answers can be wrong; the numbers above rule. Not betting advice.

Side by side

BG GriffinRG Gerard
4.2%Win this week5.0%
20%Top 521%
33%Top 1033%
52%Top 2051%
86%Make the cut85%
+1.29Rating (strokes / round)+1.26
+1.19Recent rounds+1.58
2.52Round-to-round spread2.73
534Rounds on record400
+0.52At this course (12 / 6 rounds)+0.17

Rating: strokes a round better than an average PGA Tour player, from every round on the PGA Tour, DP World Tour, LIV Golf and Korn Ferry Tour since 2014, each measured against that day's field and recent rounds counting more. Course history is shown for interest only: it didn't improve the backtest, so it doesn't move our numbers.

Last 5 meetings

Tournaments they both played: Griffin finished ahead 0, Gerard 4. Settled like a matchup bet (72 holes; a missed cut loses).

  • GERBMW ChampionshipGriffin T44 · Gerard T16Aug 2026
  • GERFedEx St. Jude ChampionshipGriffin T42 · Gerard T24Aug 2026
  • TIEWyndham ChampionshipGriffin MC · Gerard MCAug 2026
  • GERRocket ClassicGriffin MC · Gerard T8Jul 2026
  • GERThe OpenGriffin T59 · Gerard T9 · majorJul 2026

Last 6 starts

BG Ben Griffin

  • T4VidantaWorld Mexico Open-19Oct 2026
  • T44BMW Championship+1Aug 2026
  • T42FedEx St. Jude Championship+1Aug 2026
  • MCWyndham Championship-2Aug 2026
  • MCRocket Classic-2Jul 2026
  • T59The Open+2 · majorJul 2026

RG Ryan Gerard

  • T4Baycurrent Classic-13Oct 2026
  • T14FedEx Open de France-10 · DP WorldSep 2026
  • T27BMW PGA Championship-10 · DP WorldSep 2026
  • T30Omega European Masters-9 · DP WorldSep 2026
  • 3TOUR Championship-12Aug 2026
  • T16BMW Championship-6Aug 2026
Live oddsBetMGM DraftKings FanDuel Unpaid links. We take no bets.

How we get these numbers: ratings from every round on four tours since 2014, measured against each day's field, then 20,000 simulations of this tournament (cut included). See how it holds up · These two in the Analyzer

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