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Marco Penge vs Johnny Keefer

72-hole matchup · World Wide Technology Championship
El Cardonal at Diamante · first tee

JK
Our pick
MPMarco Penge
51.3% to finish ahead
ModelPenge 51.3%Keefer 48.7%

This one is close to a coin flip: a lean, not a strong pick.

Sportsbooks post golf matchups too, but there's no free feed of them, so there's no market number to compare here.

Ties left out (a push). Not a promise: a 51% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.

Advantages Why Penge can finish ahead

  1. Penge rates 0.1 strokes a round better than Keefer over the last two years of rounds, measured against the fields they beat (our core number).
  2. Head to head: Penge finished ahead in 3 of their last 5 tournaments together (a fact from the leaderboards; our numbers don't use it, ratings already do the work).

Disadvantages Why Penge may not

  1. Golf is the most random sport we cover: one round of 75 can undo a whole week. At 51%, Penge still loses this matchup about 4 times in 10.
  2. About 4% of our simulations end level after 72 holes: a tie, which sportsbooks void (a push) for a two-way matchup.

🥭 Mango Sliced Facts

Ask about this matchup; answers use only this page.

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AI answers can be wrong; the numbers above rule. Not betting advice.

Side by side

MP PengeJK Keefer
2.0%Win this week1.5%
10%Top 59%
19%Top 1017%
32%Top 2030%
73%Make the cut72%
+0.55Rating (strokes / round)+0.48
+0.55Recent rounds+0.64
2.91Round-to-round spread2.81
273Rounds on record194
–At this course (0 / 2 rounds)–

Rating: strokes a round better than an average PGA Tour player, from every round on the PGA Tour, DP World Tour, LIV Golf and Korn Ferry Tour since 2014, each measured against that day's field and recent rounds counting more. Course history is shown for interest only: it didn't improve the backtest, so it doesn't move our numbers.

Last 5 meetings

Tournaments they both played: Penge finished ahead 3, Keefer 2. Settled like a matchup bet (72 holes; a missed cut loses).

  • PENVidantaWorld Mexico OpenPenge T40 · Keefer MCOct 2026
  • KEEBank of Utah ChampionshipPenge T68 · Keefer T10Oct 2026
  • KEEBiltmore Championship AshevillePenge T10 · Keefer T7Sep 2026
  • PENWyndham ChampionshipPenge T38 · Keefer MCAug 2026
  • PENRocket ClassicPenge T45 · Keefer 60Jul 2026

Last 6 starts

MP Marco Penge

  • T40VidantaWorld Mexico Open-10Oct 2026
  • T20Open de España pres. by Madrid-7 · DP WorldOct 2026
  • T68Bank of Utah Championship-5Oct 2026
  • T10Biltmore Championship Asheville-19Sep 2026
  • T18Omega European Masters-11 · DP WorldSep 2026
  • T6Husqvarna British Masters hosted by Sir Nick Faldo-10 · DP WorldAug 2026

JK Johnny Keefer

  • MCVidantaWorld Mexico Open-2Oct 2026
  • T33Baycurrent Classic-6Oct 2026
  • T10Bank of Utah Championship-19Oct 2026
  • T7Biltmore Championship Asheville-20Sep 2026
  • MCWyndham Championship-1Aug 2026
  • 60Rocket Classic-3Jul 2026
Live oddsBetMGM DraftKings FanDuel Unpaid links. We take no bets.

How we get these numbers: ratings from every round on four tours since 2014, measured against each day's field, then 20,000 simulations of this tournament (cut included). See how it holds up · These two in the Analyzer

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