Game day
Tip-offWho's playing
The line
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | BOS -11 |
| Total | n/a | 226.5 |
| Moneyline | n/a | MIL +380 BOS -380 fair |
No betting line posted yet. Sportsbooks usually post NBA lines the night before or the morning of the game, after the first injury report. We add it as soon as one posts.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score
- BOS 119, MIL 108
- 8 in 10 games
- MIL by 6 to BOS by 28
Your pick
Locks at kickoff · Challenge a friend · All picks · Leaderboard
What changed
Nothing since our first call ().
What if?
Advantages Why Celtics can win
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 7.2 points to the Celtics in our ratings.
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Celtics +9.0, Bucks -14.4.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Celtics 7th (+7.3), Bucks 25th (-6.7).
- The Celtics' offense (116.5 points per 100 possessions, 4th in the NBA) meets a Bucks defense that ranks 27th.
- Team matchup: where the Celtics can take advantage. Their shooting efficiency (11th of 30) meets the Bucks shooting defense (26th), so look for them to get clean looks against a defense that gives them up.
- Star matchup: Best player against best player, Jayson Tatum (Celtics: 23.3 pts, 9.2 reb, 6.2 ast, Game Score 18.5; status unclear: questionable, rest) has the edge on Tyler Herro (Bucks: 21.9 pts, 5.0 reb, 4.0 ast, Game Score 16.0; filling in for Kevin Porter Jr., doubtful, not on the team's current roster).
- Simulation: the Celtics win 7,920 of 10,000 simulated games.
Disadvantages Why Celtics may not
- Game-time decision: Jayson Tatum is questionable for the Celtics.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Celtics lose by 6 or more.
- Weak spot: the Celtics rank 27th of 30 in turnovers forced per 100 possessions (12.9).
- Weak spot: the Celtics rank 26th of 30 in getting to the line (free throws per shot) (0.17).
- Team matchup: a strength the Celtics may not get to use. Their offensive rebounding (8th of 30) meets the Bucks defensive rebounding (11th), one of the better units at stopping it, which can take away their plan to crash the glass for second chances.
- Star matchup: the key positions lean the Celtics on paper, but Tyler Herro (21.9 pts, 5.0 reb, 4.0 ast, Game Score 16.0; filling in for Kevin Porter Jr., doubtful, not on the team's current roster) is the kind of player who can swing one game.
- Upset odds: the Bucks win 2,080 of 10,000 simulations (21%). A 79% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
🥭 Mango Sliced Facts
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AI answers can be wrong; the numbers above rule. Not betting advice.
Team news
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Each headline links to the full story. Injuries, lineups, suspensions and coaching news come first. We leave out rumors, gossip about players' private lives and betting promos.
Injury report
MIL Bucks
- DoubtfulKevin Porter Jr.not on the team's current roster · ESPN team rosters, Nov 4, 2026
BOS Celtics
- QuestionableJayson TatumRest
- QuestionablePayton PritchardInjury/Illness - Right Shoulder Contusion
- OutDevin CarterInjury/Illness - Illness
- QuestionableChristopher Cenac Jr.G League - On Assignment
- QuestionableDillon MitchellG League - Two - Way
- QuestionableAmari WilliamsG League - Two - Way
Official NBA injury report (latest version we read). Also checked: who played in recent games, ESPN team rosters, ESPN and CBS Sports news. Players out or doubtful are never counted as a strength.
Side by sideStandings
| MIL | BOS | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-6 | Record | 5-2 |
| -6.7 25 | Net rating | +7.3 7 |
| 109.9 22 | Offensive rating | 116.5 4 |
| 116.6 27 | Defensive rating | 109.1 9 |
| 56.1% 4 | Effective FG% | 55.0% 11 |
| 55.7% 26 | Opponent eFG% | 52.3% 7 |
| 15.2 24 | Turnovers per 100 | 12.8 4 |
| 21.9% 29 | Offensive rebound % | 29.0% 8 |
| 38.2% 5 | 3-point % | 36.3% 9 |
| 100.7 23 | Pace | 98.1 30 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
- BOS 133 @ MIL 101Apr 3, 2026
- BOS 108 @ MIL 81Mar 2, 2026
- MIL 79 @ BOS 107Feb 1, 2026
- BOS 101 @ MIL 116Dec 11, 2025
- MIL 105 @ BOS 111Dec 6, 2024
Based on power ratings only (no betting line yet). How it works
Few lines logged this season yet, so this leans on our power ratings.
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