Game day
Tip-offWho's playing
The line
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | GSW -7.7 |
| Total | n/a | 237.9 |
| Moneyline | n/a | MIA +260 GSW -260 fair |
No betting line posted yet. Sportsbooks usually post NBA lines the night before or the morning of the game, after the first injury report. We add it as soon as one posts.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score
- GSW 123, MIA 115
- 8 in 10 games
- MIA by 9 to GSW by 24
Your pick
Locks at kickoff · Challenge a friend · All picks · Leaderboard
What if?
Advantages Why Warriors can win
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Warriors +11.4, Heat +0.4.
- Back-to-back: the Heat played last night; teams on no rest lose about 2 points of strength.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 2.4 points to the Warriors in our ratings.
- Home court: the Warriors play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Team matchup: where the Warriors can take advantage. Their offensive rebounding (1st of 30) meets the Heat defensive rebounding (8th), so look for them to crash the glass for second chances. Pace clash: the Heat play fast (1st of 30 in pace), the Warriors slow (22nd); whoever sets the tempo gets the game they want.
- Star matchup: no key position favors the Warriors, so they need their depth to beat the other side's stars, with Stephen Curry (26.9 pts, 3.6 reb, 4.7 ast, Game Score 19.7) leading the way.
- Simulation: the Warriors win 7,220 of 10,000 simulated games.
Disadvantages Why Warriors may not
- Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): Heat 5th (12.9), Warriors 27th (16.2).
- The Heat' offense (113.7 points per 100 possessions, 11th in the NBA) meets a Warriors defense that ranks 19th.
- Defensive rebounding (share of misses): Heat 8th (74.6%), Warriors 24th (71.6%).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Warriors lose by 9 or more.
- Team matchup: where the Heat can push back. Their shooting efficiency (13th of 30) meets the Warriors shooting defense (25th), so look for them to get clean looks against a defense that gives them up. And their ball pressure (20th of 30) meets the Warriors ball security (27th): a chance to turn steals into easy points in transition.
- Star matchup: Best player against best player, Giannis Antetokounmpo (Heat: 28.4 pts, 12.3 reb, 5.7 ast, Game Score 24.2; status unclear: day-to-day) has the edge on Stephen Curry (Warriors: 26.9 pts, 3.6 reb, 4.7 ast, Game Score 19.7); at center, Bam Adebayo (Heat: 19.6 pts, 9.8 reb, 3.2 ast, Game Score 16.5) has the edge on Kristaps Porzingis (Warriors: 16.1 pts, 5.1 reb, 2.4 ast, Game Score 12.1).
- Upset odds: the Heat win 2,780 of 10,000 simulations (28%). A 72% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
🥭 Mango Sliced Facts
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AI answers can be wrong; the numbers above rule. Not betting advice.
Team news
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Each headline links to the full story. Injuries, lineups, suspensions and coaching news come first. We leave out rumors, gossip about players' private lives and betting promos.
Injury report
MIA Heat
- Sat outSimone Fontecchiomissed the last game · box scores, Nov 3, 2026
- QuestionableGiannis Antetokounmpo Fday-to-day · ESPN team rosters, Nov 4, 2026
GSW Warriors
- Sat outBrandon Williamsmissed the last game · box scores, Nov 3, 2026
Official NBA injury report (latest version we read). Also checked: who played in recent games, ESPN team rosters, ESPN and CBS Sports news. Players out or doubtful are never counted as a strength.
Side by sideStandings
| MIA | GSW | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-5 | Record | 5-3 |
| +1.6 14 | Net rating | +2.8 11 |
| 113.7 11 | Offensive rating | 115.6 6 |
| 112.1 18 | Defensive rating | 112.8 19 |
| 54.3% 13 | Effective FG% | 54.7% 12 |
| 54.3% 16 | Opponent eFG% | 55.7% 25 |
| 12.9 5 | Turnovers per 100 | 16.2 27 |
| 25.2% 18 | Offensive rebound % | 32.9% 1 |
| 36.1% 11 | 3-point % | 38.9% 4 |
| 106.2 1 | Pace | 101.7 22 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
- MIA 112 @ GSW 135Jan 19, 2026
- GSW 96 @ MIA 110Nov 19, 2025
- GSW 86 @ MIA 112Mar 25, 2025
- MIA 114 @ GSW 98Jan 7, 2025
- GSW 113 @ MIA 92Mar 26, 2024
Based on power ratings only (no betting line yet). How it works
Few lines logged this season yet, so this leans on our power ratings.
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