College basketball track record
Every Division I prediction is logged before tip-off and graded afterwards. Nothing is deleted. NBA track record · College football
Live picks
The live college basketball record starts with the first graded game. Every pick is logged before tip-off and graded after the final buzzer, wins and losses alike.
Backtest, 2019-20 onward (37,014 games)
Each game day was predicted using only games played before it. Settings were chosen on 2017-18 and 2018-19 and never re-tuned on these games. The lines are the closing lines ESPN stored for each game.
| Winners picked | Log loss | |
|---|---|---|
| Closing betting line | 72.8% | 0.5241 |
| AZMango model | 72.8% | 0.5236 |
| Our power ratings, no line | 72.0% | 0.5382 |
The honest summary: we match the closing betting line; we do not beat it. Our own adjustments (who sat out last game, rest, efficiency) did not improve on the closing spread over the last two seasons, so the guard rail has them switched off. What we add is the explanation, a number for every one of 132,860 pairings, and probabilities you can check.
Are the percentages honest?
| We said | Games | Average call | Actually won | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50%-60% | 7777 | 56% | 55% | |
| 60%-70% | 9182 | 65% | 63% | |
| 70%-80% | 8156 | 75% | 75% | |
| 80%-90% | 6266 | 85% | 86% | |
| 90%-100% | 5633 | 95% | 96% |
Bars: our average call (light) against how often those teams won (dark).